YOUNG GUN SUPPORT: PART III

RGIII and Andrew Luck: Still at the Head of their Class

My last two posts looked back at the first three weeks of the 2012 NFL season and discussed how QB support revealed that Tannenhill, Wilson, and Wheeden have struggled out of the gates. But how about RGIII and Andrew Luck? After their first four games, they were both 2-2. That's an average, but not great record. How much of that is typical rookie struggles to adjust to the NFL, and how much of that is simply the reality that RGIII and Andrew Luck are being asked to carry the team as they resurrect struggling franchises?

As a starting reference, here are the win-loss records across different levels of support for all QBs through the first four weeks of the 2012 season.

QB SUPPORT	Less than 1.5	1.5 to 1.99	2 to 2.99	3 to 3.99	4 to 4.99	5+
WINS	2	4	11	17	12	17
LOSSES	27	8	13	5	5	1

Again, there seems to be big changes in winning percentage between QB who receive support levels below two (6 - 35), support levels between two and three (11 - 13), and support levels over three (46 - 11). Also, winning percentage increases as we go up in support at each subgroup EXCEPT from the 3 to 3.99 to the 4 to 4.99 categories. I suspect this is statistical noise, and would also point out that of the five losses in the 4 to 4.99 category, three have involved Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, or Brandon Wheeden. I think as the season progresses, we’ll see a greater winning percentage in the 4s than in the 3s.

Games in the 2 to 2.99 support levels are generally a toss-up that could go either way. A team will need strong play out of their QB to win, but it seems to be a 50/50 shot. With support less than two, it’s an uphill battle for any QB, and with support above 3, most teams can expect a win, as long as their QB can provide a relatively adequate game. Of course, as we get past five, it’s all but a guaranteed victory for a team that gets any reasonable output from their QB.  

With that in mind, let’s take a look at how RGIII and Luck stack up against the rest of their cohort. Consider the following statistics for games played through Week 4**:

**I included Luck’s Week 5 game because he had a bye in week 4. This way, the table captures the first four games played by each QB **

QB	Games with Support > 3	Avg Support	Record after four games
Wilson	4	4.71	2-2
Tannehill	3	4.00	1-3
Wheeden	1	2.39	0-4
RGIII	0	2.15	2-2
Luck	0	1.84	2-2

Wilson had support levels above 3 EVERY week (and above 4 in all but one), and yet the Seahawks were only at .500 going into week 5. Tannenhill had 3 weeks of support above 3, and yet the Dolphins won only one of those games (where support was closer to 6). Wheeden only had one game above 3 (it was above four in fact), but he failed to win that one too. In short, these three QBs are not always winning the games one would expect an average QB to win, and they are certainly not winning any others. They are rookies though.

They are rookies though. Just as I think that is a semi-reasonable excuse thus far for Wilson/Tannehill/Wheeden, I also think it suggests that we might have something very special on our hands when it comes to RGIII and Luck. Let’s take a look at their game by game support levels.

RGIII	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
WIN	2.065	Saints	40-32
LOSS	1.51	Rams	28-31
LOSS	2.72	Bengals	31-38
WIN	2.305	Buccanrs	24-22

LUCK	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
LOSS	0.81	BEARS	21-41
WIN	2.445	VIKINGS	23-20
LOSS	1.11	JAGUARS	17-22
WIN	2.975	PACKERS	30-27

Both QBs have won two games with support levels between 2 and 2.99 (though Luck’s last one was very close to 3). What’s been more impressive than that, however, is just how close they have come to winning games at even lower levels of support. Luck’s loss in week 1 is the only time either QB has lost by more than one score. Let’s take a closer look at RGIII’s loss to the Rams and Luck’s loss to the Jaguars.

Against the Rams, RGIII’s teammates rushed for 94 yards and allowed the Rams to put up 31 points. RGIII only had to outperform 24 points, however, because the Redskins defense added a TD of their own off a fumble recovery.  Still, without a single possession starting past his own 40 and only 10 possessions total, RGIII had some work to do if he wanted to keep the Redskins in the game. He went 20/29 passing, threw for 206 yards (and 1 TD), and he added another 82 yards on the ground (including 2 TDs) while turning the ball over just once on his way to adding 21 more points for the Redskins.

Luck had even less help when he played the Jaguars. Luck’s offense had to overcome 22 points. Like RGIII against the Rams, Luck also did not start a single possession past his own 40 yard line, and his teammates contributed only 74 yards on the ground on 25 carries. Making things harder, Adam Vinatieri missed a 36 yard field goal. Luck also turned the ball over once, but it was Luck’s contributions on offense that not only kept the Colts within five, but put them on the 26 yard line with just seconds left for one last Hail Mary attempt. It didn’t work out, and the Colts lost. Still, Luck’s 313 passing yards and the 50 more he added with his legs were pretty special contributions from a rookie QB who was asked to put up more than 22 points with very little help in regards to the ground game, field position, or the kicking game.  

The wins that Luck and RGIII have led their teams to show that the Colts and Redskins can win right now while asking their QBs to do more than just “manage the game.” The close losses where support was at 1.51 or even 1.11 show that these QBs are just a step away from being able to carry their teams to victory the same way some of the more celebrated veterans do. At this point, they are still worlds away from the other rookie QBs when it comes to helping their teams win. For now, Luck and RGIII are still firmly at the head of their class. 

2012 Week Four Stats

DISCLAIMER/REMINDER: High numbers correspond with the strong play of a QB's TEAM, not the QB while low numbers correspond with weaker play of a QB's team, not the QB. Essentially, the lower the number, the harder it was for the QB to win the game.

Week 5 TEAM QB RESULT QB SUPPORT 49ERS A. Smith WIN +9.245 BRONCOS P. Manning  WIN 5.705 TEXANS M. Schaub WIN 5.555 VIKINGS C. Ponder WIN +5.380 BENGALS A. Dalton WIN 5.195 BEARS J. Cutler WIN 5.095 CHARGERS P. Rivers WIN 5.060 PATRIOTS T. Brady WIN *4.895 RAVENS J. Flacco WIN 4.605 SEAHAWKS R. Wilson LOSS **4.060 CARDINALS K. Kolb WIN **3.620 RAMS S. Bradford WIN 3.120 TITANS M. Hasselback LOSS 3.075 EAGLES M. Vick WIN 2.980 REDSKINS R. Griffin III WIN *2.805 BROWNS B. Wheeden LOSS 2.795 BUCCANEERS J. Freeman LOSS 2.330 DOLPHINS R. Tannenhill LOSS 2.240 CHIEFS M. Cassell LOSS 2.125 FALCONS M. Ryan WIN *2.065 GIANTS E. Manning LOSS *1.955 COWBOYS T. Romo LOSS **1.715 LIONS Stafford LOSS **1.365 JAGUARS B. Gabbert LOSS 1.350 BILLS R. Fitzpatrick LOSS 1.310 PANTHERS C. Newton LOSS 0.795 PACKERS A. Rodgers WIN 0.535 SAINTS D. Brees LOSS *-0.275 JETS M. Sanchez LOSS -0.325 RAIDERS C. Palmer LOSS *-0.810
* Adjusted by +0.5 to account for changes in the formula **Adjusted by -0.5 to account for changes in the formula +Adjusted by +1 to account for changes in the formula

YOUNG GUN SUPPORT: PART II

The Struggles of Tannehill and Wheeden

My last post discussed why I’m not yet ready to buy into Russell Wilson as a “winning QB.” Today, I want to take a look at how effective Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Wheeden have been at leading their teams to winning across different support levels. The good news: as it was with Wilson, I’m only examining the first three weeks of their career. This is a small sample size, and there’s plenty of time to improve. The bad news: it’s not too pretty for either Wheeden or Tannehill.

Wheeden is winless and Tannehill 1-2 so it might seem as I’m just stating the obvious when I say that the two QBs are off to a rough start. Additionally, pretty much any individual passing statistic could tell you the same thing about these two young QBs. Sometimes, QB support is confirming what we already know, but it does allow us to dig deeper in getting a sense of a QB’s “value added” for individual games.  

Once again, I’ll repost the win-loss records of non-rookie QBs across different support levels:

QB SUPPORT	Less than 1.49	1.5 to 1.99	2 to 2.99	3 to 3.99	4 to 4.99	5+
WINS	1	3	7	15	8	9
LOSSES	21	5	7	3	2	0

Keeping those records in mind, let’s move on to how Ryan Tannehill fared during weeks 1 through 3:

TANNEHILL
RESULT	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
LOSS	3.3	TEXANS	10 – 30
WIN	5.985	RAIDERS	35 – 13
LOSS	3.875	JETS	20 – 23

Tannehill has not had a support level below 3 in his first three weeks, and yet he finds himself at only 1-2. The Texans trounced the Dolphins, but that was in part due to Tannehill’s lackluster performance. It would have been near impossible to lose against the Raiders in week 2, and Tannehill did not do much to help his team’s effort against the Jets (though Dan Carpenter didn’t do much to help either).

Week 1 is perhaps Tannehill’s most interesting game in the context of QB Support. Sure, the Texans put up 30 points on the Dolphins and that can be hard for any QB to overcome. That fact itself is a big part why it was Tannehill’s lowest support game, but why wasn’t the calculated support lower? Well, because the Dolphins special teams spotted Tannehill a touchdown, meaning his offense had only to catch up to 23 points. Not only that, a number of those points were created because Tannehill threw three interceptions that placed the Texans at the Miami 7 yard line, the Miami 27 yard line, and the Houston 46 yard line. It is worth noting that ALL of Houston’s TDs were from those three drives. Considering the circumstances that Tannehill created for his team, he was actually pretty well supported, especially factoring in the special teams TD. It was not just the Texans offense, but Tannehill’s poor performance that sunk the Dolphins in week 1.

In week 2, Tannehill and the Dolphins earned their first win, but it wasn’t done on the back of their QB. The Dolphins generated 249 yards on the ground, held the Raiders to 13 total points AND gave Tannehill the ball at his own 40 yard line or better 3 times. Tannehill played serviceable, but it’s tough to believe that any drop in performance at the QB position would have affected this game too much.

Week 3 was perhaps Tannehill’s worst game in terms of helping his team get the win. His defense held the Jets to 16 points total (13 in regulation), but Tannehill gave away 7 more with an interception returned for a TD. He got plenty of help from his ground game (185 yards), and he was given 13 total possessions. His support rating was lowered because of Dan Carpenter’s missed kicks, but it wasn’t affected that significantly because those misses were from 47 and 48 yards out (QB Support is adjusted for missed field goals, but it also takes into account the distance from which they were missed). Although Carpenter should have been expected to make at least one of those, they are not exactly chip shots either. More than that, better play at the QB position from Tannehill could have (A) helped Carpenter get closer or (B) put the Dolphins in a position where they didn’t need those last minute field goals. At the end of the day, the Dolphins played a tough, closely fought game against the Jets, and they needed more out of their rookie QB than 16/36, 196 yards, and a pick six. In a game this close, even a marginally better effort could have avoided overtime and reliance on a kicker from 45+ yards out.

Wheeden
RESULT	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
LOSS	4.31	EAGLES	16 – 17
LOSS	1.2	BENGALS	27 – 34
LOSS	1.245	BILLS	14 – 24

Brandon Wheeded hasn’t had the consistently high support levels that Tannehill has enjoyed, and that’s a definitely a part of why he’s 0-3. Still, during the one game he did have a high support level, he did pretty much everything in his power to help his team lose.

Week 1 for Wheeden was an unmitigated disaster, and he was a big part of the reason his team lost. The Browns defense kept the Eagles to 17 points, and they added a defensive TD of their own. Granted, the 74 yards rushing that Wheeden’s teammates provided isn’t much, but he only had to help the offense generate 10 points. Additionally, he had a number of chances on the Browns 15 drives, 3 of which started between the 40 yard lines, and one which started on Philadelphia’s  22. Unfortunately, even that field position couldn’t help Wheeden find the endzone, and the Browns offense settled for field goals, generating only nine points to add to the defense’s seven. The Browns needed only a below average effort from their rookie QB, but he couldn’t even provide that, and they fell to the Eagles by one point.

Weeks 2 and 3 were actually better for Wheeden. His team struggled to give him any good shot at winning, and yet the games were not blowouts. The rushing game worked well in week 2, providing 130 yards, but the defense allowed 34 points and, along with the special teams unit, failed to offer Wheeden much help in terms of field position. It took a significantly improved performance on Wheeden’s part to keep the game as close as it was. Week 3 was a similar story. Although the browns allowed less points, their rushing game stalled out against the Bills. Faced with coming up with 24 points without anything special in terms of field position, Wheeden wasn’t up to task. In fairness to him, it was a lot to ask of a rookie QB, especially considering that the browns only mustered 33 yards on the ground.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Both Wheeden and Tannehill have had their struggles. Tannehill notched a win in week 2, but he has struggled to put Ws on the board for his team even when his defense, special teams, and ground game are working well. Too often, he’s undermining those efforts with mistakes that put the defense in compromising positions or even directly put points on the board for the other team. Wheeden has definitely received less help from his team on weekly basis. Nevertheless, if he wants to be starting for the Browns long-term, they’re going to need him to win “the easy ones.” It doesn’t get much easier for a QB than Wheeden’s week 1 game, but his complete inability to move the offense cost his team the game. It’s early, both in the season and in these young QBs careers, but they’re going to have to play better going forward if they want to keep their jobs.