Calculating QB Support

QB Support is calculated by looking at the support a QB receives from the rest of his team. Specifically, it is adding individual metrics that are calculated by using

·         “True Points Against”

·         “Kicking Support”

·         “Rushing Support”

·         “Field Position Support”

·         “Offensive Teammates Turnovers”

·         “QB Turnovers”

Here’s how each of those factors are calculated

TRUE POINTS AGAINST (TPA) and “TPA Support”

The idea behind calculating TPA is that QBs and the offense are charged with overcoming a certain amount of points to win the game. Just looking at the final point total of the other team can be misleading. If a defense shuts out the opposing team, but a QB throw three INTs returned for TDs, it would be foolish to say that QB was “less supported” than some other QBs because his opponent scored 21 points.

TPA takes the total points the opponent scored and subtracts

1.       The points scored on THE ACTUAL PLAY involving a QB’s INT, Fumble, or sack (i.e. safety) plus 1 (for the extra point). It does not factor in turnovers that give the opponent good field position (that’s accounted for later).

2.      TDs scored by the special teams and defense plus 1 (for the extra point)

Once we have that number, “TPA Support” = 3.5 – (TPA/7). For example, if a QB has to overcome 28 points, his “TPA Support” would be -0.5. A QB who had to overcome only 10 points would have 2.07 worth of TPA Support.

NOTE: It IS possible to have “TPA Support” above 3.5. A defense that allowed 3 points and scored two defensive TDs would give their QB a TPA of -11 and “TPA Support” of 5.07, which makes sense. That game should be impossible to lose no matter how bad your QB plays.

KICKING SUPPORT

The premise behind this is that QBs shouldn’t be punished in the rankings for having a kicker who misses chipshots nor should they be rewarded for a kicker hitting multiple 55+ yard FGs.

For Missed FGs, QBs receive the following support depending on the distance of the attempt

·         -.35 for kicks of 35 yards or less

·         -.25 for kicks between 35-44 yards

·         -.15 for kicks between 45-59

·         -.05 for kicks between 50-54

·           .00 for kicks of 55+

For Made FGs, QBs receive the following support depending on the distance of the attempt

·         .00 for kicks of 35 yards or less

·         .05 for kicks between 35-44 yards

·         .15 for kicks between 45-49 yards

·         .25 for kicks between 50-54 yards

·         .35 for kicks 55+

RUSHING SUPPORT

A QB receives .015 support for every rushing yard by his teammates. This, of course, does not count the QB’s own rushing yards. It NOW also adds .015 support for every offensive yard generated on other plays not involving the QB (i.e. halfback pass).

FIELD POSITION SUPPORT

Field position support starts at -1.65 at each game and QBs get support for each “active” drive the offense gets. “Non active” drives are those that end in kneel downs with no attempt to score.

The reason for starting with -1.65 is that a QB who has 11 drives (league average) between his own 15 and 29 yard lines (the most common starting field position) will receive 1.65 in field position support for those drives canceling out the initial value, giving him a final value of “0.”

QBs receive Field Position Support for each drive depending on the starting field position as follows

Starting Field Position of the Drive	Support received
Behind Own 15	.10
Own 15-29	.15
Own 30-40	.20
Own 41-50	.30
Opponent’s 49-40	.40
Opponent’s 39-30	.50
Opponent’s 29-20	.65
Opponent’s 19-10	.80
Opponent’s 9-5	.90
Inside Opponent’s 5	.95

OFFENSIVE TEAMMATE TURNOVERS

If a QB is charged with overcoming a certain amount of points, nothing can sabotage those efforts more than his teammates fumbling the ball away, ending a long drive. Similarly, if a QB gets .95 support for getting the ball inside the opponent’s five yard line, he shouldn’t be blamed for failing to take advantage of the opportunity if the RB fumbles the ball back on the first play.

Teammate turnovers are simply an inverse of field position support because however valuable having the ball at a certain place on the field is, it is equally harmful to lose that opportunity.

Location of Turnover*	Support received
Behind Own 15	-.10
Own 15-29	-.15
Own 30-40	-.20
Own 41-50	-.30
Opponent’s 49-40	-.40
Opponent’s 39-30	-.50
Opponent’s 29-20	-.65
Opponent’s 19-10	-.80
Opponent’s 9-5	-.90
Inside Opponent’s 5	-.95

NOTE ON “LOCATION OF TURNOVER”* To calculate where the turnover is located, it is located where the ball was fumbled on a running OR the line of scrimmage on a passing play.

Here’s why: if a RB runs 60 yards down the field and fumbles the ball, QB support calculates the QB as having received that rushing support to place him in a position to score. Thus, it makes sense to substract support corresponding with losing the ball at that location. It would be unfair to say a QB is “more supported” because his runningback runs for 20 yards and fumbles the ball. On a pass, however, a WR simply not making the catch would result in no change in support. A catch without a fumble also wouldn’t change support. By catching and fumbling the ball instead of say dropping it, the WR takes away the opportunity to have more downs back at the original line of scrimmage.  

QB TURNOVERS

QB turnovers only add “support” to the extent that they give the opponent a better chance to score. The point is to account for the effect that poor QB play influences TPA above. Obviously, just because a QB’s interceptions are run back to his own 1 yard line opposed to actually scoring a TD doesn’t mean they didn’t help his opponent score points.

Result of QB Turnover*	Support Added
Opp. Starts at own 31-40	.20
Opp. Starts at own 41-50	.30
Opp. Starts at QB’s 49-40	.40
Opp. Starts at QB’s 39-30	.50
Opp. Starts at QB’s-29-20	.65
Opp. Starts at QB’s 19-10	.80
Opp. Starts at QB’s 9-5	.90
Opp. Starts inside QB’s 5	.95

I do NOT add support for turnovers that occur deeper in an opponent’s territory. A lot is made of “red zone” turnovers, and QB’s TAVA will (indirectly) be significantly lowered by them, but this is already built into the model.  Let’s look at how this plays out:

DRIVE 1: Starting at his own 25

QB1 goes three and out. His team punts and the opponent receives the ball at their 25 yard line. He received .15 support and no change in score.

DRIVE 2: Starting at his own 25

QB2 drives 70 yards down the field despite getting exactly 0 rushing yards from his teammates.  He then throws an INT in the end zone, which is downed for a touchback. He received .15 support and no change in score.

DRIVE 3: Starting at his own 25

QB3 drives 70 yards down the field while his RB rushed for 50 yards on 6 carries. He then throws an INT in the end zone, which is downed for a touchback. He received .90 support (.75 from rushing) and no change in score.

DRIVE 4: Starting at opponent’s 8

QB4 throws an INT in the end zone, which is downed for a touchback. He received .90 support and no change in score.

DRIVE 4: Starting at his own 25

QB5 throws an INT that’s run back to his own 9 yard line. The defense holds, and the opponent kicks a field goal. Now, QB 5 loses .42 support for the fact that his opponent scored  3 points, but the net support result is +.62 support (.15 for the drive, .90 for the turnover, and -.42 for the points), and the QB is now down 3 points.

You shouldn’t unfairly punish QB 2 compared to QB 1 when he in fact is getting a result that is the same, or even better (by at least keeping his defense off the field for longer). At the same time QB 3 and QB 4 squandered the support their team gave them and that shows up in TAVA. There’s no need to ADD support to lower their TAVA further.  If you do not add support to QB5, however, the result is that he may have increased his TAVA by losing support while only being down 3 points.