Don’t Count Out the Cardinals?

Ok, just kidding. You can count out the Cardinals… well, maybe, and mostly because they play in a VERY difficult division, having to play the Seahawks and 49ers twice. But teams might want to hold off on penciling in their Ws for those weeks they see ARZ on the schedule.

The Cardinals have a new coach with Bruce Arians and a new QB with Carson Palmer. Is that enough that we should take them seriously? I mean, it IS Carson Palmer so how good can they be? But consider the following:

Last year, the Cardinals had the second worst overall QB performance as measured by TAVA with a season average TAVA of -1.81 (2^nd only to the Chiefs), but even that’s misleading. Because in the first six games, when it was mostly Kevin Kolb playing QB, the Cardinals QB play was only slightly below average (-0.19). They were 4-2, having beat both the Seahawks and the Patriots. It was in the next ten games (where they went 1-9) where the Skelton/Hoyer/Lindley QB-by-committee dumpster-fire put together a league worst -2.8 TAVA score. The stretch included gems like these combined stat lines:

11/27 70 yards (lost by 4)

10/31 72 yards (lost by 1)

31/52 312 yards 4 INTS, two INTS returned for TDs (lost by 14) 

Even the lone win against the Lions didn’t exactly include “adequate” QB play. Yes, the Cardinals put up 38 points, but that included 2 defensive TDs, a 2 play TD drive that started at the Lions 3 yard line, and a 2 play drive that started at the Lions 29, and a one play drive that started at the Lions 5 yard line. Total number of passes on those 3 TD drives… wait for it… ZERO. Average yards per pass for Arizona in that game: 4.95.  

Well, even if they fix the passing game, how about that defense? Well, the 2012 Cardinals defense ranked:

·         6^th in Interceptions per drive

·         12^th in yards per game and yards per play

·         4^th in points allowed per drive

This isn’t a bad unit. 

The questions remains, however, is Palmer a big enough upgrade to help the Cardinals win tough football games? Palmer himself had a -.477 TAVA score (30^th out of 38 ranked QBs) so he wasn’t exactly lighting it up. But the Cardinals don’t need great; they need average (or maybe even just below average). And Palmer also gets major improvements in two things TAVA cannot take into account: coaching staff and quality of WRs, which brings me to Larry Fitzgerald.

I took a look at stretches of Fitzgerald’s 2012 season with different QBs and extrapolated what his season totals would be if he played a full season with those conditions. This is what I found:

QB		REC	YARDS	TDs		QB TAVA
Kolb/Skelton	First 6 Games	96	1147	8		-0.18
Skelton Only	Next 3 Games	80	827	5		-1.54
Skelt/Lind/Hoy	Last 7 Games	45	487	0		-3.29

If Palmer can stay healthy and play at least below average (just not league worst kind of levels), don’t count on Fitzgerald to have another disappointing season. As for the Cardinals as whole, don’t count them out either… well, maybe, sort of, not yet I guess.

Come back tomorrow for QB Support’s 2013 NFL Countdown 2/5: Romo, The Whipping Boy