Matt Ryan was the highest ranked QB according to
TAVA in 2012. TAVA is designed to see, when we control for factors outside the
passing game (strong defense and special teams, a good ground game, etc.), which
QB is best at putting his team in a position to win the game. Matt Ryan led the
Falcons to a 13-3 record and, for all the discussions about a soft schedule,
the Falcons also beat the only the other 13-3 team, the Denver Broncos. Not
only that, Ryan did this without an elite defensive unit, and one of the league’s
worst rushing offenses. He ranked only
18th in the QB support he received, and yet his team ranked first in
their record.
Now, TAVA does NOT take into account the quality of
a QB’s WRs so, given that Ryan has arguably the absolute best trio of pass catchers
in the league with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, there’s an argument
that maybe he wasn’t REALLY the best in the league. Although for teams who face the Falcons next
year, it won’t really matter if their passing defense is getting smoked because Ryan is so good
at finding and hitting open receivers or because those receivers are just so
good at getting open.
One of the reasons that Ryan’s support numbers were
lower than some other QB’s was because the Falcon's rushing attack was so poor. They were 29th in total rushing yards and tied for 28th in
yards per carry. Think about that, a 13-3 team that came within 10 yards of going to the Super Bowl had the worth lowest amount of rushing yards in the league. Ignoring their loss in the meaningless week 17 game (though the rushing game was horrible there too), the Falcons rushed an average of 13.5 times for 36 yards in their two regular season losses. Starting RB, Michael Turner, had a combined stat line of 20 rushes for 29 yards in those two games. Of the 50 first downs the Falcons had in those two games, only five involved a run.
The Falcons felt they simply couldn’t trust the ground game, which is why, despite big
leads against the Seahawks and the 49ers in the playoffs, they struggled to
close out the games. It took Ryan putting together an amazing last second field
goal drive to re-take the lead against the Seahawks, and the Falcons came up
short at the 49er ten yard line to miss out on a trip to the Super Bowl. After being
up 20-0 at halftime against Seattle, the Falcons rushed the ball only ten times
for 34 yards, amassing only two rushing first downs in the whole second half.
After a 10 point halftime lead (formerly 17) against San Francisco, the Falcons saw a similar
scenario, 9 rushes 40 yards and two rushing first downs. That looks a little
more efficient at least, but 28 of those yards came on 3 rushes from Rodgers and Snelling right after
each other. Other than that little burst, the run game was anemic, unreliable,
and unable to help with either clock management or field position for the
defense.
Now, the team that was 13-3 with effectively no ground game has brought in RB Steven
Jackson. Jackson has always been an elite back lacking a strong team. The
Falcons are a Super Bowl contender in need of an elite back. Some
things just make sense. Despite not always playing 15 or 16 games (which he has
done the last four years), Jackson has amassed over 1000 yards rushing and 1250 total yards in the past eight consecutive seasons, a feat all the
more impressive when one considers that the defense never really had to stay honest against the pass
in St. Louis in the way they will have to in Atlanta. This is all good news
for Falcon fans.
There are some concerns though. Turner used to be a
pretty capable back himself for the Falcons before age seemed to catch up with him
last year at the age of 30. Steven Jackson, meanwhile just turned… uh oh… 30 himself.
To say that past performance is not a guaranteed indicator for a 30 year old RB
is an extreme understatement. We’ll all have to wait and see how much SJax has
in the tank. But if he can offer the Falcons even close what he’s offered the Rams for years, the
Falcons may not be only nearly impossible to stop, they may also finally be
able to burn down the clock, effectively close out games, and protect a lead.
The Broncos, the 49ers, the Seahawks... they’re all
definite contenders who are getting a lot of deserved attention, but people
shouldn’t sleep on the Falcons. A scary good offense in 2012 might just be a whole let better
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