2013 Week 4 Write-Up

HIGHEST TAVA IN A WIN: Drew Brees, NO
QB SUPP: 2.52
Result: Won by 21 points
TAVA: 4.01
The Saints rushed for 66 yards on Monday Night. That’s one of the lowest totals of the season. If that wasn’t enough, 18 of those yards came on a play where Darren Sproles fumbled away an almost certain scoring opportunity. Take away that play (which surely didn’t make it easier for Brees to lead the Saints to victory), and the saints rushed for 48 yards on about 2.5 yards a carry. Then, another scoring opportunity would be missed when Garrett Hartley missed a 43 yard field goal. None of this mattered though because Drew Brees was phenomenal.  He moved the ball downfield, averaging over ten yards an attempt while the offense scored 6 times on the ten drives that didn’t involve a teammate’s fumble or a missed field goal. He was efficient, completing over 75 % of his passes and committing no turnovers. He did it all, playing a role in over 86 % of the team’s offensive yards. Teams that gave their QB a support level of 2.52 in 2012 could expect to win about 35 % of the time. Brees didn’t just help the Saints win, he helped keep the Dolphins from even coming close.

A NOTE ON PEYTON MANNING:

Manning had another spectacular performance on Sunday, and he continues to lead the league in TAVA for the year. His performances, though consistently great, often do not rank as high as some other individual performances because TAVA puts a higher value on strong performances in lower support games. It’s great that Manning was tossing TD passes to help the Broncos to another blowout win, but with the defense allowing 20 points, special teams scoring two TDs, and Manning’s teammates rushing for 138 yards, this was a Broncos win even with a less than amazing QB performance. His TAVA score (2.50) was still the 3^rd highest of the week (and would rank as the highest of the year as an average) so it’s not like his performance gets discounted entirely either.

HIGHEST TAVA IN A LOSS: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

QB SUPP: 0.60
Result: Lost by 7 points
TAVA: 0.77
Roethlisberger hasn’t always played well in the first four games of 2013, but his team isn’t offering much help either. Of the 37 QBs that have played a complete game in 2013, he has received less support, on average, than all but three of them (Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, and Chad Henne). Sunday wasn’t much different. The defense allowed 34 points with only one TD that can be partly blamed on Roethlisberger (whose turnover gave the Vikings the ball at the Steelers 35). His teammates rushed for only 77 yards in total, forcing Roethlisberger to throw the ball over 50 times. Roethlisberger was fairly effective too (36/51, 383 yards). He did turn the ball over twice, but that is at least partly due to how much was asked of him.

HIGHEST QB SUPPORT: E.J. Manuel, BUF

QB SUPP: 7.44
Result: Won by 3 points
TAVA: -2.03
The Bills escaped with a win, but it was in spite of their young QB, not because of him. The Ravens scored 20 points, but when evaluating the Buffalo defensive performance, you also have to account for the fact that Manuel turned the ball over three times, giving the Ravens the ball at the Buffalo 18 one time and the Buffalo 27 another time. The defense also picked off Flacco five times, which was part of the reason that Manuel had drives that started at the Baltimore 48, 37, 28, and 25 yard lines. Add in the fact that his teammates rushed for over 200 yards, and it becomes clear that this game shouldn’t have been close if Manuel had turned in even an average performance. Turning the ball over 3 times and going 10/22 passing is not good QB play, regardless of whether your team bails you out or not.

LOWEST QB SUPPORT: Michael Vick/Nick Foles, PHI

QB SUPP: -2.25
Result: Lost by 32 points
TAVA: 0.35
There’s not a whole lot of fancy analysis to do here. It’s tough to keep pace with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, and it’s asking a lot of your QB to come up with 52 points. You can’t fault Vick for this loss. I had to score this game as a “combined effort,” meaning it won’t count towards either Vick’s or Foles’ individual rankings. Even though Foles only came in for garbage time, he led an 80 yard drive that changed the margin of the loss by a somewhat significant amount. Given that QB Support calculated this game as a sure loss, the TAVA score is almost solely based on the margin of loss and so Foles’ effort had a decent impact on the TAVA score.

LOWEST TAVA IN A WIN: Russell Wilson, SEA

QB SUPP: 4.62
Result: 3 point overtime win (scored as a 1 point win for TAVA)
TAVA: -0.45
Aside from Manuel (discussed above), Wilson had the lowest TAVA score of week 3’s winning QBs. Wilson was pretty well supported, mostly by his defense. The defense allowed 20 points, but also added 7 of their own when Richard Sherman intercepted Matt Schaub and returned it for a touchdown. Wilson was then tasked with coming up with more than 13 points. Wilson also had one possession that began at the Texans 47 and another at the Texans 21. He mostly wasted those opportunities by throwing an interception on one drive and three straight incompletions on the other. Wilson was fairly effective with his legs (10 carries, 77 yards), but his ineffective passing (11/23 123 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was a big reason the Seahawks offense needed overtime to come up with more than 13 points.

LOWEST TAVA IN A LOSS: Matt Flynn, OAK

QB SUPP: 5.17
Result: Lost by ten points
TAVA: -5.05
There were plenty of poor QB performances in week 4. I wanted to use this space to talk about how Geno Smith’s poor play caught up with the Jets once again this weekend, or how this was quintessential Joe Flacco the bad version, or even how Mike Glennon was SO bad that maybe the Buccaneers really would have been better off with Josh Freeman. But Matt Flynn wouldn’t let that happen.

Matt Flynn added so little value that we now have to talk about him. The Redskins offense scored 17 points, but the Raiders scored a TD on a blocked punt, leaving Flynn and the offense responsible for coming up with more than 10 points. Flynn did help lead one 81 yard TD drive, but after that, he threw a pick six that wiped out the value of that TD drive, fumbled the ball away in his own territory (which lead to one of the two Redskins offensive TDs) and was unable to score any additional points. Basically, without taking the field, Flynn and the offense were down 10 points. Despite 100 rushing yards from his teammates and 15 drives (3 of which started at or around midfield), Flynn not only couldn’t come up with more than ten points, his efforts would lead to a loss by that exact amount. It’s tough to do worse than zero net points on 15 drives. I think Pryor’s starting job is safe for now.