Week 1 Selected Games

TOP PERFORMERS: P. Manning, A. Luck, C. Kaepernick

Kaepernick and Luck won games with low QB Support and Manninng took his average support and turned it into a rout. Anyone who can read a box score (or who has eyes) should have figured out that Kaepernick and Manning would end up with high TAVA scores, and I don’t feel the need to discuss their dominant performances in depth. But why does Luck score so high? He had under 200 yards passing and the Colts only scored 21 points. Well, it has to do with efficiency, not of individual passes, but of drives.

Luck’s low QB support was partly due to a lack of possessions. While Manning had 14 active possessions (and 2 kneel down possessions) and Kaepernick had 15, Luck had only 7 active possessions. While the Colts defense was busy allowing 171 rushing yards (31^st in the league) and letting Oakland convert on 7 third downs, that clock was ticking. Not only did Luck not get a lot of chances with the ball, he didn’t have a single drive with great field position. And yet, he helped convert 3/7 of those possessions into long TD drives of 80, 69, and 80 yards. That turns out to be 3 points per drive, which is especially impressive considering that all but one drive (starting from the Colts 31) started at the Colts 20 or worse.

ALONG FOR THE RIDE: M. Vick, T. Brady, J. Locker

Locker is the easiest to understand in this group. His defense allowed 9 points, his teammates added 109 rushing yards, and he had great field position a number of times. Locker’s lackluster (11/20, 125 yards) performance was a major reason this was a one score game and the Titans never pulled away.

Vick helped “lead” the Eagles offense on four TD drives, but that’s less impressive when you consider that he had the league’s best rushing attack (league leading even when you exclude all of Vick’s rushing yards) and some great field position. The Eagles TD drives were 25 yards, 34 yards (Vick contributed -4 yards), 44 yards (Vick contributed 3 yards), and 62 yards. On possessions starting behind their own 30, the Eagles scored only 3 points on five tries despite the rushing yards Vick’s teammates continued to provide. They struggled to put together long scoring drives and that was a big reason that the Redskins were able to stay in this game as long as they did. Add Vick’s fumble that Washington returned for a TD, and you have Vick’s low TAVA score.

Brady may be unfairly grouped here because one thing that lowered his TAVA score was an interception that hit TE Zach Sudfeld in the palm of his hands and, subsequently, gave the Bills great field position. TAVA does not take WR quality into account and Brady, probably more than most other QBs this season, can use his depleted WR corps as an excuse. Still, 17 of the offense’s points came from a FG drive starting at the 50 yard line and two TD drives starting at the Bills 16 and 32 yard lines. In 9 possessions that started deep in Patriots territory (Own 30 yard line or worse), the Patriots had 6 punts, two Brady turnovers (though, to be fair, one was a 4^th and 1 fumble at the goaline), and only 3 points. This was despite a strong rushing effort led by Shane Vereen. A more productive passing attack, and this game wouldn’t have needed a 4^th quarter come from behind field goal.

GOOD (LOSING) EFFORT: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers had the highest TAVA score of any losing QB in week 1. His team allowed 34 points, his teammates added only 50 rushing yards to help him out, and he had some fairly poor field position to boot. What’s crazy is that Rodgers TAVA score would be even higher if Jermichael Finley hadn’t dropped/thrown a pass right into hands of the 49ers defense, resulting in Rodger’s only INT. Rodgers and his ability to help the team move the ball down the field for TDs was the only thing that kept this game close.

PLEASE SEND HELP: Blaine Gabbert

The offense scored zero points. He averaged less than 4 yards per attempt, completed less than 50% of his passes, and, if that wasn’t enough, he threw a pick six. I don’t think I need to offer any fancy analysis here. Gabbert was horrible.