Saturday, January 5, 2013

2012 Regular Season QB Rankings: Total Adjusted Value Added (TAVA)


RANK
QB
TAVA
PA/gm
PA Rank
WA/Gm
WA Rank
1
M. Ryan
1.563
7.81
2
0.39
1
2
T. Brady
1.212
10.21
1
0.11
10
3
A. Rodgers
1.117
6.43
4
0.24
3
4
P. Manning
0.975
7.14
3
0.14
7
5
R. Griffin
0.870
4.05
6
0.23
4
6
D. Brees
0.855
6.07
5
0.13
9
7
A. Luck
0.820
1.67
14
0.32
2
8
T. Romo
0.800
3.71
8
0.22
5
9
C. Newton
0.522
3.77
7
0.08
12
10
M. Schaub
0.519
1.76
12
0.17
6
11
A. Smith
0.295
1.56
15
0.07
15
12
E. Manning
0.292
2.69
9
0.02
18
13
K. Kolb
0.203
-0.66
19
0.13
8
14
R. Wilson
0.172
2.13
11
-0.01
21
15
C. Kaepernick
0.162
2.40
10
-0.03
25
16
M. Stafford
0.107
1.70
13
-0.02
24
17
J. Flacco
0.051
0.13
17
0.02
17
18
M. Vick
-0.017
-1.75
23
0.08
13
19
B. Roethlisberger
-0.027
1.36
16
-0.07
28
20
N. Foles
-0.030
-2.14
26
0.09
11
21
J. Cutler
-0.090
-0.33
18
-0.02
23
22
A. Dalton
-0.114
-1.23
22
0.01
19
23
R. Tannehill
-0.137
-0.88
21
-0.02
22
24
J. Locker
-0.163
-3.16
30
0.07
14
25
J. Freeman
-0.255
-0.80
20
-0.08
30
26
C. Ponder
-0.269
-2.78
29
0.01
20
27
S. Bradford
-0.313
-2.12
25
-0.05
27
28
R. Fitzpatrick
-0.320
-2.52
27
-0.03
26
29
M. Hasselback
-0.353
-4.87
33
0.06
16
30
C. Palmer
-0.477
-3.22
31
-0.07
29
31
P. Rivers
-0.495
-1.89
24
-0.15
32
32
B. Weeden
-0.603
-2.53
28
-0.17
33
33
C. Henne
-0.773
-3.97
32
-0.18
34
34
B. Gabbert
-0.864
-6.35
34
-0.11
31
35
M. Sanchez
-1.099
-6.43
35
-0.22
35
36
M. Cassell
-1.918
-9.57
36
-0.47
37
37
B. Quinn
-2.207
-13.80
37
-0.41
36
38
Other Az QBs
-2.872
-14.79
38
-0.69
38



QUICK NOTES ON TAVA
1. HOW IS TAVA CALCULATED?
To see how TAVA, WA and PA are calculated, click here

GAMES PLAYED
Because TAVA ranks QBs according to the QB Support they received and the final result of the game, I analyzed games where there was only one QB who took significant snaps. Games where a QB got injured around halftime or games where two QBs had a large role in determining the outcome were excluded. Because of what I did with the Arizona QBs (which I'll get to in just a minute), this still only required me to exclude around 15 out of 512 QB performances. I'd love to include every QB performance, but including over 97 % seems good enough. 

ANALYZING "38" QBS
In the rankings, I've included all NFL QBs who were the only QB to take significant snaps in at least 4 games in 2012. Additionally, I've also included "one QB" who played in 10 NFL games this season: QBs of the Arizona Cardinals not named Kevin Kolb. The probem was that Ryan Lindley, John Skelton, and Billy Hoyer all played a number of games where two of them had significant playing time. None of them played four games at the QB position where no other QB saw substantial time. Still, this trio was so uniquely ineffective and downright terrible, I wanted to include them somehow as a reference. Maybe it's not fair to lump their mistakes in with each other, but you can see they were not exactly adequate signal callers.

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