Why Matt Ryan Should Be in the MVP Discussion

If you want my opinion, Adrian Peterson should be this year’s NFL MVP. In my mind, no other player had their consistently elite performance have such an impact on their team’s success.  If you replace him with an average player at his position, I could legitimately see the 2012 Vikings with a 6-10 record (or worse). Still, Peyton Manning is getting serious consideration for the 2012 MVP award. I’m here to tell you that, if we’re considering a QB for MVP, we need to also consider Matt Ryan.  Look at how the two QBs performed across QB Support levels.

P. Manning	WINS	LOSSES	TAVA
1.499 OR LOWER	0	1	2.23
1.5 to 2.499	1	1	3.17
2.5 to 3.999	2	1	3.28
4.0 to 4.999	4	0	3.72
5.0 or Higher	6	0	1.50
M. Ryan	WINS	LOSSES	TAVA
1.499 OR LOWER	0	2	1.93
1.5 to 2.499	4	0	7.80
2.5 to 3.999	4	1	4.29
4.0 to 4.999	2	0	1.63
5.0 or Higher	3	0	0.99

                                                 

RYAN: SAME RESULTS WITH LESS SUPPORT 

Both QBs were undefeated when QB Support was above 4.0. Similarly, both were winless when QB Support was below 1.5.  Where we see Ryan pull away is in the mid-support games. When QB Support was above 1.5 and below 4.0, Matt Ryan was 8-1, and Peyton Manning was 3-2. Not only that, Ryan’s only loss in this range was the meaningless week 17 game against the Buccaneers where the Falcons had already wrapped up the no. 1 seed.

Both QBs went 13-3. Both QBs had an 8-0 half of a season and a 5-3 half. Both QBs put up gaudy passing statistics (4500+ yards, 65+ %  completion rate, 30+ TDs, etc. etc.). Matt Ryan did it with less support. So why is Manning a serious candidate for the MVP award, and Ryan isn’t even in the conversation.

SHORT MEMORIES FAVOR MANNING

Part of this, I think, has to do with WHEN the 8-0 stretches happened. Ryan and the Falcons opened the season 8-0 before finishing 5-3 whereas Manning and the Broncos finished their year off on an 11 game winning streak. Here’s the catch: that 11 game winning streak had as much to do with the entire Broncos team. Manning had incredible levels of QB Support during this time. Meanwhile, the Falcons 8-0 run was much more dependent on the play of Matty Ice. To those who believe that wins later on in the regular season should “count more,” I would refer to you this year’s Baltimore Ravens (finished the season by going 1-4), the 2009 Saints (8-0 and then 5-3), the 2007 Giants (6-2 and then 4-4), the 2006 Colts (9-0 and then 3-4), and I could go on. 

Let’s take a look at each QBs season divided into halves.

PEYTON MANNING	WINS	LOSSES	EXPECTED WINS	TAVA
FIRST HALF	5	3	4.208	2.33
SECOND HALF	8	0	6.766	3.07
TOTAL	13	3	10.974	2.63
MATT RYAN	WINS	LOSSES	EXPECTED WINS	TAVA
FIRST HALF	8	0	4.311	5.55
SECOND HALF	5	3	3.836	2.32
TOTAL	13	3	8.147	3.90

Seven of Manning’s last eight games were played with QB Support of 4.0 or higher (and four with 5.0 or higher).  By season’s end, the Broncos supplied Manning with nearly 11 “Expected Wins” based on the support they gave their QB. His Expected Wins per game was just below Russell Wilson, making Manning the fourth most supported QB in the 2012 season.

Meanwhile, the QB Support Ryan received was equal to only about 8 “Expected Wins,” making him the 17^th most supported QB for the regular season.  Ryan only had about four “Expected Wins” during that 8-0 start. What does all this mean, though? Here’s a quick comparison of Matt Ryan’s 8-0 start to Peyton Manning’s 8-0 finish with some more “basic” statistics.

	True Points Against	Rushing yards/gm
MATT RYAN FIRST 8 gms (8-0)	16.1	86.5
PEYTON MANNING LAST 8 gms (8-0)	9.4	124.5

Putting aside factors like field position and the kicking game, these two simple statistics, more than anything else, clearly demonstrate the situation.  Ryan had to overcome more points while receiving less help from his teammates in the ground game. Manning provided tremendous value to the Broncos during their winning streak, but they certainly didn’t need an All-Pro QB to win some of those games.

THREE THINGS QB SUPPORT MIGHT BE MISSING

There are a number of things that QB Support cannot statistically take into account. Here are three things it misses and why it might lead us in the wrong direction.

1.       QUALITY OF WRs

It’s very difficult to quantify how much WRs are helping their QB because the play of each position is so intertwined with the other.  Did Demaryius Thomas become a top 3 WR (as ranked by DYAR) this year compared to 62nd last year because he really improved his game? Or was it because Peyton Manning was throwing him the ball instead of Tim Tebow?

I haven’t figured out a good way to take WR quality into account (and I don’t see myself doing so in the near future). Regardless, as good as Decker and Thomas might be, I think most would agree that Roddy White and Julio Jones are probably the most talented WR duo in the league. Because of them (and Tony Gonzalez), Matt Ryan’s TAVA scores will always be a little bit inflated. How inflated is the question that we cannot answer.

2.       AUDIBLES AND CALLING PLAYS ON THE FIELD

It’s not a secret that Peyton is often as valuable for his on-the-field coaching abilities as he is for his personal playing ability. To what extent does Denver’s rushing attack owe its success to Manning’s ability to audible and adjust at the line of scrimmage? I don’t know, and TAVA gives him no credit for this.

3.       MANNING FACES

I suspect that much (if not all) of the QB Support that Manning receives is due to the fact that his teammates get to look at expressions like this. I mean, not taking things like this into account is probably my statistics greatest flaw.