ROY Debate Part III: Andrew Luck and doing more with less

In this final installment, I’ll discuss how Andrew Luck fared this year across different support levels, and give my final thoughts on the ROY of the year debate. Luck had the highest TAVA of any rookie QB, ranking 5^th overall in the league (2^nd in “Wins Added and 13^th in “Points Added”).

As I did with RGIII and Wilson, I’ve included, as a reference point, how all QBs performed across a few different ranges of QB Support.

QB Support	Wins	Losses	Win %
1.499 or Lower	5	98	5%
1.5 to 2.499	30	66	31%
2.5 to 3.999	69	69	50%
4.0 to 4.999	51	15	77%
5.0+	99	6	94%

And here’s how Andrew Luck performed in those ranges along with his TAVA scores for each range.

A. Luck	WINS	LOSSES	TAVA
1.499 or Lower	0	4	-0.67
1.5 to 2.499	3	1	2.49
2.5 to 3.999	4	0	1.28
4.0 to 4.999	3	0	0.18
5.0+	1	0	0.19

Of the three rookie QBs we’ve been discussing, Luck was the only QB to play in games with a QB Support level of less than 1.5. One of those games was just barely below at 1.31, but three of them were below 1.

THE BEST

Luck added the most value to his team in the low to middle support ranges. Luck played in 8 games where QB Support was somewhere between 1.5 and 3.999. The Colts went 7-1 in those contests, almost always because of a strong outing from Luck and often including late game heroics. Many of these were close games, but given the comparatively low QB Support levels, Luck would have had above average (though admittedly lower) TAVA scores even if he had lost a couple more of these games in close fashion. Furthermore, he had a positive TAVA score in the one loss in this range. It was also a close game, a five point loss where Luck drove the offense to the opponent’s 26 before coming up short on two final pass plays.

Consider this: games where QB Support is below 1.0 are almost surely losses, and games where QB Support is above 5 are almost surely a win. So the games where QBs can make the biggest difference are games where QB Support is between 1.0 and 4.0. When QB Support was 1.0 to 4.0, Russell Wilson was 5-5, RGIII was 8-5, and Andrew Luck was 10-2.

THE WORST

Andrew Luck may have been ranked 2^nd in “Wins Added,” but his TAVA was dragged down by a lower score (ranked 14^th) in “Points Added.” Despite his 3-0 record in games with QB Support above 4, Luck won those games by unimpressive margins of 7, 7, and 4 points. He did enough to help his team win, but not much more.

Luck’s real struggles, however, came when his QB Support was at its lowest. The -0.67 TAVA for extremely low support games represents that. Yes, those four games were almost surely losses anyway, but Luck’s poor play turned losses into blowouts. He lost his three lowest support games by 20, 26, and 35 points. In those three games where his QB Support was under 1.00, his TAVA was an even lower -0.80. Even then, that represents only three games, and perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that a rookie QB with exceedingly low support was feasted on by the opposing defense.

BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL OF LUCK’S TURNOVERS?!       

There are those that dismiss Luck’s season as, well, lucky. Sure, he won some close games, but he really didn’t play that well. He turned the ball over 23 times. HE’S TIED WITH MARK SANCHEZ FOR INTERCEPTIONS. MARK SANCHEZ! Meanwhile, RGIII turned the ball over only 7 times, and Wilson threw only 10 interceptions and lost 3 fumbles. How does a guy with almost double (or more than triple) the amount of turnovers of his fellow rookies end up with a higher TAVA? What gives?

I mentioned that Luck’s TAVA was lowest in the three games where his QB Support was below 1.0. Let’s take a look at those three games:

AVG QB Support	Avg. True Points Against*	Rush Yards/gm	Pass Atts./ Gm	INTs	Fumbles
0.52	38	70.33	46.33	8	3

*Accounts for TDs scored on a QB’s turnover as well as points created by a QB’s own special teams and defense.

In those three games, Luck was tasked with overcoming, on average, 38 points (and never less than 34) while getting only an average of 70 rushing yards from his teammates. That, and the fact that he started ZERO drives inside his opponent’s 50 yard line, is probably why he threw more than 46 passes per game, often in situations when the opposing team knew he would be throwing. It shouldn’t be a surprise that 11 of Luck’s 23 turnovers came in those 3 games. Furthermore, 10 of those 11 turnovers occurred when the Colts were already losing by an average of over 16 points. One interception occurred when the game was tied.

Keep in mind, Neither Wilson nor Griffin III were ever asked to throw more than 40 passes in a single game nor did they ever face QB Support levels below 1.0. RGIII had to overcome 30 points three times (though never more than 32), but his teammates rushed for over 110 yards in each of those games AND his defense and special teams provided him with strong field position in those games as well. Wilson meanwhile never had to overcome 30 points, and only had to overcome more than 20 points in 2 games.

Another way to highlight the same idea is simply to look how often the three QBs had to throw less than 25 times, 25-40 times, and 40+ times, and what effect, if any, that has on how often they throw interceptions.

<25 Pass Attempts	GAMES	ATTEMPTS	INTs	INTs/Att
R. Wilson	9	183	3	1.6%
R. Griffin III	5	100	2	2.0%
Andrew Luck	0	0	0	0.0%
25 - 40 PASS ATTEMPTS	GAMES	ATTEMPTS	INTs	INTs/Att
R. Wilson	7	210	7	3.3%
R. Griffin III	9	278	3	1.1%
A. Luck	9	285	5	1.8%
40+ PASS ATTEMPTS	GAMES	ATTEMPTS	INTs	INTs/Att
R. Wilson	0	0	0	0
R. Griffin III	0	0	0	0
A. Luck	7	342	13	3.8%

Luck wasn’t just the only one of the three QBs to throw more than 40 times; he did so in almost half of the games he played. Meanwhile, in more than half the games Wilson played, he threw the ball less than 25 times. RGIII’s ability to avoid turnovers is, however, still apparent, even after controlling for attempts/game.

CONCLUSIONS ON LUCK

Like we did with RGIII and Wilson, let’s take a look at how Luck’s TAVA breaks down for each half of the season.

A. Luck		WINS	LOSSES	Expected Wins	TAVA
FIRST HALF		5	3	2.51	1.02
SECOND HALF		6	2	4.21	0.62
TOTAL		11	5	6.717	0.82

Luck was significantly above average for each half of the season. We also see that Luck had less support than either Wilson or RGIII. His Expected Wins are just a hair above RGIII’s, but keep in mind, those are the expected wins for Luck’s 16 games, compared to RGIII’s 14. It’s not surprising that the first overall pick (going to a team who was 2-14 the year before) did not get a whole lot of QB Support or that his expected wins were between 6 and 7. What is surprising is how much value Luck managed to add to the Colts in his rookie season. Even in his first season, Luck showed that he can win the tough games, that he doesn’t need a strong defense or ground game to lead his team to victory.

FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE OROY DEBATE

Luck had the highest TAVA, and his worst games occurred when he was placed in situations that RGIII and Wilson simply did not face. Nevertheless, when things were at their toughest, Luck had significant struggles. It’s also not fair to assume that, if they had faced extremely low QB Support, RGIII and Wilson would have struggled as much as Luck did.

Compared to RGIII, Luck had wider swings between his best and worst performances. Additionally, while RGIII and Wilson showed significant improvement in the second half of the season when he got more QB Support, Luck seemed to play a little bit worse. 

Looking at the QB Support numbers, I would give the award to Luck, though just by a hair and with plenty of ambivalence. Yes, RGIII was more consistent. But no rookie meant more to his team than Luck. No other rookie played such a central role to his team. The lack of QB Support Luck received is a big reason that he threw the ball over 200 times more than RGIII or Russell Wilson, and it’s a big reason why he made more frequent mistakes.

There’s definitely a strong argument for RGIII, who never had the lows that Luck had. If there was ever a time to have Co-OROYs, this would be the year. In terms of Wilson, however, I don’t think he should really be in consideration. He’s shown tremendous promise, especially with how much he continues to improve. Nevertheless, the OROY is an award for a single season and an entire season. As good as Wilson was in the second half of 2012, he simply did not perform at the same level as RGIII and Luck for the entire year. The ability of the top two picks to start strong right out of the gate was so critical to the value they added to their teams. If it’s going to go a QB, it should be Luck or RGIII.