ROY Debate Part I: Russell Wilson and the Tale of Two Seasons

Ignoring the amazing seasons that Doug Martin and Alfred Morris put together (since that seems to be what everyone else is doing), the debate for OROY comes down to three QBs. So QBSupport.Blogspot will be doing a three piece discussion of how the Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and R. Griffin III. Right now, Part I, we’ll discuss Russell Wilson.

If you’ve been watching Russell Wilson lately, you might have been surprised to see that his TAVA was a very average 0.39, putting 15^th out of 38 ranked QBs (15^th in “Points Added” and 17^th in “Wins Added”). Why wasn’t he ranked higher? Let’s take a look at how he performed across support levels, but first, here’s a table of how all Quarterbacks fared across support levels in the 2012 NFL season.

QB Support	WINS	LOSSES	Win %
1.499 or Lower	5	98	5%
1.5 to 2.499	30	66	31%
2.5 to 3.999	69	69	50%
4.0 to 4.999	51	15	77%
5.0+	99	6	94%

One thing, I want to note is that, the “average QB” should actually have a higher than 94 % change of winning with QB Support above 5 because those six losses didn’t come from “average QBs.” In the six games this year where a QB lost with a QB Support level above 5, the QB was Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassell, Brady Quinn, a combination of Ryan Lindley and John Skelton, and Ryan Lindley (this time in a solo effort). With that said, here’s R. Wilson’s performance.

R. Wilson	WINS	LOSSES	TAVA
1.499 or Lower	0	0	0.00
1.5 to 2.499	2	2	1.40
2.5 to 3.999	2	1	-0.07
4.0 to 4.999	1	2	-2.00
5.0+	6	0	0.67

The first thing I want to note is how many games that Wilson played at high support levels. He did not play a single game where QB Support was lower than 1.5, and he enjoyed QB Support of 4 or better in more than half of his outings. Looking at his QB Support throughout the year, Wilson had 10.76 “Expected Wins” or 0.67 EW per game, which ranks as the fourth highest, lower than only Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick, and Alex Smith. Essentially, only the Bears and the 49ers did more to put their QBs in a position to win than the Seattle Seahawks.

THE BEST

And yet, Wilson had his highest TAVA in the 1.5 to 2.499 range of QB support. Where the NFL average would suggest he would win 31 % of his games, Wilson won half. Despite comparatively low support against the Patriots and the Bears, Wilson’s strong play in those games (16-27 293 yards 3 TDs, 0 Turnovers and 23-37 293 yards 2 TDs, 0 turnovers) helped his team eke out a 1 point and overtime victory. Even the two losses in this range saw Wilson playing well to keep the game close. Despite lower than usual QB Support against the Lions and the Dolphins, Wilson played well, keeping the Seahawks within 4 points and 3 points respectively.

THE WORST

What really drags Wilson down in TAVA is that his poor performances in two high QB support games caused the Seahawks to lose what were otherwise winnable games, and a lackluster performance in a third almost caused another loss.

In Week 1 against the Cardinals, the Seahawks allowed twenty points, but that feat is slightly more impressive when you consider Wilson’s fumble gave the Cardinals the ball inside the Seahawks 20 yard line. The Seahawks D also caused turnovers, letting Wilson start drives at the Arizona 24, 34, and 16 yard line. And yet, even with 95 rushing yards to help him, Wilson couldn’t lead the offense to more than one TD. His 18-34 attempts mustered only 153 yards (55 of which came on  the final drive). The Hawks needed to have more than 98 passing yards for the first 90 % of this game, and that was big part of why they lost. Then, against the Rams, Wilson floundered again. With 164 rushing yards to help him, Wilson could not overcome the 19 points put up by the Rams. Wilson threw three INTS (two of which gave the Rams good field position), and only managed 150 yards on 25 passes. The next week against the Panthers, Wilson had a QB Support level of 5.31. The Seahawks defense held the Panthers to a mere field goal, but Wilson helped keep the game close by throwing a pick 6 and another interception to boot.

IS YOUR STAT BROKEN? HASN’T WILSON BEEN TEARING IT UP?

There are some that might say any statistic that suggests Russell Wilson is “average” doesn’t pass the eyeball test. Anyone can see that he’s been playing great, right? What gives? What gives is that people have a short memory. Wilson has in fact been playing great lately, and his TAVA represents that. It also, however, represents how little he was doing to help his team win early on in the season.

Take a look at how his stats break down for the two halves of the season:

R. Wilson		WINS	LOSSES	Expected Wins	TAVA
FIRST HALF		4	4	5.00	-0.58
SECOND HALF		7	1	5.77	1.01
TOTAL		11	5	10.768	0.21

Wilson had pretty high support all season long, but he struggled to turn that into the winning record it should have been in the first half of the season. What’s a great sign for the future of his career is that as the season progressed, so did Wilson. Yes, his support did increase a little as well, but Wilson went from a TAVA of -0.58 (it would rank 32nd out of 38 QBs if it was for whole season) to a TAVA of 1.01 (that would rank as 4^th  overall).

Wilson has shown a lot of promise. His play in some lower support games show that he’s not entirely dependent on having a great team performance behind him, and his progress and improvement as the season went on suggest he might be the franchise QB the Seahawks have been waiting for. Still, if we’re assessing an entire year’s performance, the body of work suggest “slightly above average.”