CALCULATING WINS ADDED

Here’s how the entire league performed across the QB Support ranges I use to calculate Wins Added and, accordingly, TAVA.

QB Support WINS LOSSES WIN % 0.5 or Lower 0 39 0.0% 0.5 to 1.499 5 59 7.8% 1.5 to 2.499 30 66 31.3% 2.5 to 3.499 48 54 47.1% 3.5 to 3.999 21 16 56.8% 4.0 to 4.999 51 15 77.3% 5.0 to 5.999 57 4 93.4% 6.0 or higher 43 2 95.6%

“Wins added” is calculated for each game a QB plays. First, we look at how much QB Support the QB received. Then, given how others in that range performed, we can calculate the league’s win percentage in that range.

For each win, “Wins Added” is calculated as simply (1 – Win %). For each loss, it’s an even simpler calculation of (-Win %). These positive and negative values can then be added up for a whole season. 

WHY THESE RANGES?

The first step I had to take in creating “Wins Added” was to look at the win-loss records at each 0.5 interval. Let’s call these “sub-ranges.” What I found was that certain sub-ranges had very similar win-loss records (and margins of victory, but we’ll get to that later), and certain sub-ranges showed a significant difference from the sub-range directly below them. By grouping the similar sub-ranges together and separating them from any sub-ranges that were significantly different, I made ranges of QB Support that made the most sense based on the data.

WHY IS “WINS ADDED” HELPFUL?

“Wins Added” is helpful because, at the end of the day, we want to know who helps their team win. By looking at not just how often a QB wins, but how often that player wins when placed in different situations, “Wins Added” can see which QBs are actually playing an active role in helping their teams win (or lose) games, and which QBs win or lose mostly depending on what support they receive. 

WHY IS “WINS ADDED” PROBLEMATIC?

The problem with “Wins Added” is that it treats every win and loss as equal. When Andrew Luck received QB Support of 0.125 against the New England Patriots, “Wins Added” treats that game as essentially unwinnable and gives Luck a score of 0.0 because they lost, but so did every other QB placed in a similar situation. The fact that Luck’s poor play caused the Colts to not just lose, but lose by 25 gets completely ignored. When Drew Brees received QB Support of -0.275 against the Packers, he received the same score.  The fact that he played incredible and nearly defeated the Packers  (they lost by 1 point) despite receiving such little help from his team is also ignored. He receives the same score 0.0 wins added.

Of course, the same problem occurs with high support wins. Matt Ryan’s 5 INT game against the Cardinals (a 4 point win with QB Support of 5.9) receives the same 0.067 Wins Added as Tom Brady’s strong performance against the Rams (a 38 point victory with QB Support of 5.1).  It is precisely this problem that I attempted to correct (or least balance) with the creation of “Points Added.”