ROY DEBATE PART II: RGIII and A New Era in Washington

RGIII was the sixth rated QB in the 2012 regular season, according to the TAVA metric (4^th in Wins Added, 9^th in Points Added). As a rookie QB, RGIII took his lumps (and plenty of hits), but he played well from start to finish. In addition to his 3200 passing yards and 815 rushing yards, the young signal caller made very few mistakes, turning the ball over a mere 7 times. Let’s take a look at how he performed across different support levels. As a reference, I have once again included how all NFL QBs performed across different support levels.

QB Support	WINS	LOSSES	Win %
1.499 or Lower	5	98	5%
1.5 to 2.499	30	66	31%
2.5 to 3.999	69	69	50%
4.0 to 4.999	51	15	77%
5.0+	99	6	94%

R. Griffin III	WINS	LOSSES	TAVA
1.499 or Lower	0	0	0.00
1.5 to 2.499	2	3	1.02
2.5 to 3.999	5	2	0.93
4.0 to 4.999	1	0	0.84
5.0+	1	0	0.75

RGIII had 14 games that could be analyzed through the lens of QB Support. Obviously, he didn’t play at all against the Browns. In the game against the Falcons, RGIII left in about the middle of the game and truly split it with Kirk Cousins. Therefore, the results of that game are also absent in my analysis of RGIII.

THE BEST

Like Wilson, Robert Griffin III did not play a single game with extremely low support. Also, RGIII really seemed to thrive when he got at least a moderate amount of help from his team. With support between 2.5 and 3.999, RGIII gave the Redskins a whole lot more than a 50/50 shot of winning games. Where RGIII really added critical value to his team, however, was in his two lowest support wins against the Saints and the Giants.

RGIII opened up his NFL career with a bang. Despite getting a QB Support level of only 2.065, he absolutely lit up the Saints to lead his Redskins to a 1-0 mark. The young QB completed over 70 percent of his passes while averaging a whopping 12.3 yards per attempt on his way to 320 passing yards. He also added 42 yards on the ground and did not turn the ball over once. It didn’t matter that the Saints put 32 because with RGIII’s efforts (and 111 rushing yards some good field position), the Redskins were able to put up 8 more.

The Redskins also asked a lot of RGIII in their second game against the Giants. RGIII’s defense only allowed 16 points, and his teammates rushed for 135 yards. Nevertheless, RGIII and the offense only had 8 possessions. To make matters more difficult on the QB, one of those possessions ended when, after RGIII ran the ball down to the Giants 15 yard line, Alfred Morris fumbled the ball away. RGIII’s efficient passing and 72 yards on the ground were just enough as the QB’s fourth quarter TD pass put the Redskins up by 1 point, and up for good.

THE WORST

RGIII didn’t have any really high support losses, and there are not a whole lot of low-lights to pick out from his 2012 season. His three worst games were likely the three consecutive losses against the New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Carolina Panthers.

RGIII actually moved the ball well in his first game against the Giants, but his two turnovers came at inopportune times and places, hurting his team’s chances of winning. Meanwhile, against Pittsburgh and Carolina, RGIII averaged only 5.4 yards a pass and 3.8 yards a run compared to season averages of 8.1 and 6.8 respectively. Those defenses kept him largely in check, which was a big part of the reason that the Redskins scored only 12 and 13 points in those games.

THE CONCLUSION

In looking at the two halves of RGIII’s season, we see that while he had positive TAVA scores for both timeframes, he did show significant improvement in the second half of the season, and that directly translated into more wins for his team.  

R. Griffin III		WINS	LOSSES	Expected Wins	TAVA
FIRST HALF		3	4	2.82	0.62
SECOND HALF		6	1	3.86	1.16
TOTAL		9	5	6.682	0.87

RGIII was above average for the whole season and across all QB Support levels. There was not a single game that the Redskins lost primarily because of poor play from the rookie. A team that probably should have been a 7 or 8 win team, went 10-6 and won the NFC East in large part because of their talented rookie QB. With the fifth highest TAVA, RGIII ranks just above fellow rookie Andrew Luck, and behind only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan. That's not exactly bad company. Assuming RGIII makes a full recovery and the Redskins can keep him healthy, the franchise has a bright future with an All-Pro caliber QB.