Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII

ROUND
QB
Opponent
MoV
QB Support
TAVA
SUPERBOWL
R. Wilson
Broncos
35
6.73
1.22
SUPERBOWL
P. Manning
Seahawks
-35
-0.94
-1.02

Super Bowl, Seahawks vs. Broncos:
Russell Wilson had his best game of the playoffs, but it really wasn’t necessary. Consider this: after the kick-off to open the second half, the Seahawks were up 29-0, and Russell Wilson had only thrown for 94 yards (and ran for 10). Wilson played mistake free football, and converted a number of key third down passes. He did everything you would want a second year QB to do on the big stage. His TAVA score (1.22) reflects that. It’s not higher because, frankly, almost none of it was necessary. His teammates rushed for over 100 yards, he had great field position, and the defense and special teams scored DOUBLE the points that they allowed. This was a team win all the way, and it’s hard to imagine that replacing Wilson with any starting NFL QB (or back-up for that matter) would have changed the result.


On the opposite side of the field, was the opposite story. Manning couldn’t solve the Seattle defense, but he certainly didn’t get much help. There was no reason whatsoever for Seattle to honor the run (27 yards on 2.5 YPC). Denver could not stop points from flowing in, and Manning was asked to do too much against the league’s best defense. Manning’s mistakes helped make this game a blowout (and lead to a poor TAVA score), but even close to perfect QB play might not have been enough. 

Conference Championships 2013



ROUND
QB
Opponent
MoV
QB Support
TAVA
CONF. CHAMP.
T. Brady
Broncos
-10
0.33
0.58
CONF. CHAMP.
P. Manning
Patriots
10
2.53
2.83
CONF. CHAMP.
C. Kaepernick
Seahawks
-6
2.38
-0.73
CONF. CHAMP.
R. Wilson
49ers
6
5.10
-0.45

NFC Championship Game, 49ers vs. Seahawks:
A lot of people may be tempted to blame Kaepernick for this loss. That would be a mistake. Sure, there was enough time left that maybe he didn’t need to throw that pass to Crabtree with Richard Sherman defending. Still, Kaepernick was the only reason the 49ers were still in the game. Colin Kaepernick had 283 total yards. The rest of the 49ers offense… 31. Ok, he had three turnovers. Fine. Without him making plays out of nothing, this game would have been a blowout. While Kaepernick accounted for 90 % of the 49ers offense, Wilson had to account for a much more reasonable 65 percent while committing his own costly turnover (inside his own 20). Wilson wasn’t bad per se, and he made some huge plays, like that 4th Down 35 yard TD pass. Still, given the help he had (3 possessions starting in opposing territory, a 60 yard TD drive where he had to contribute only 4 yards), he could have done more to keep this game from being so close.


AFC Championship, Patriots vs. Broncos:
After providing Brady with a QB Support level of 5.62 against the Colts, the Patriots would give their QB significantly less support against the Broncos. Brady’s teammates would rush for only 57 yards, and the defense failed to generate a single turnover, leaving Brady with long fields all day. Brady missed some throws, but you can’t pin this loss on him. Manning, meanwhile, continued to put *some* of his playoff demons to rest, taking average support, milking the clock, putting up points, completing nearly 75 % of his passes, and punching Denver’s ticket to the Super Bowl.

Divisional Round 2013



ROUND
QB
Opponent
MoV
QB Support
TAVA
DIVISIONAL
D. Brees
Seahawks
-8
2.03
-0.58
DIVISIONAL
R. Wilson
Saints
8
4.83
-0.04
DIVISIONAL
A. Luck
Patriots
-21
0.90
-0.89
DIVISIONAL
T. Brady
Colts
21
5.62
0.62
DIVISIONAL
C. Kaepernick
Panthers
13
3.59
1.67
DIVISIONAL
C. Newton
49ers
-13
1.20
-0.34
DIVISIONAL
P. Rivers
Broncos
-7
0.65
0.65
Divisional Round Game 1, Saints vs. Seahawks: 
Russell Wilson was the highest supported QB in the 2013 regular season, and the trend of high support continued into the playoffs. The Seahawks defense held the Saints to a mere 15 points and allowed Wilson to play with the lead the entire game. Wilson was also aided by 158 rushing yards from his teammates, great field position, and a consistent kicker. The end result: the Seahawks enjoyed an 8 point playoff win despite the young QB completing only 50 % of his passes and contributing only 119 total yards. Brees, meanwhile, had less help, including a kicker that went 0/2 and a RB who lost a fumble. Brees and the passing game came alive late, but it was too little too late.

Divisional Round Game 2, Colts vs. Patriots: 
For the second straight week, the Colts allowed 40+ points and provided Andrew Luck with an anemic rushing attack (64 yards). And for the second straight week, Luck was forced to throw over 40 times and, unsurprisingly given the circumstances, threw multiple interceptions. This time, however, the low support caught up with the Colts and they were bounced from the playoffs. Future hall-of-famer Tom Brady was more than happy to play the role of game manager, passing just 25 times as he rode great field position and 234 rushing yards to an easy victory.

Divisional Round Game 3, 49ers vs. Panthers:
Colin Kaepernick took a strong defensive performance, some decent rushing support, and combined it with a decent (and turnover free) outing to  put together some long TD drives and help the 49ers to their third straight conference championship. Cam Newton, on the other hand, was hung out to dry by his team. Yes, he threw two interceptions. Yes, it wasn’t his best game. Nevertheless, you cannot allow 23 points and give your QB only 8 drives (none starting in opponent’s territory) and only 39 rushing yards and expect to win in the playoffs. That’s simply asking too much.

Divisional Round Game 3, Chargers vs. Broncos:
There was no one and done for Manning and the Broncos this year. The stat line and the score make this seem like a closer game and less impressive outing for Manning than it really was. Manning and the Broncos offense had eight drives, scored five times for 27 points. The three times they didn’t score were a Julius Thomas fumble, a missed Field Goal, and an interception in the endzone. Rivers played admirably and kept his team in the game, but without any meaningful support, the passing game couldn’t keep pace with the Broncos.