Going Through The Progressions Week 2 2014

The Bills are probably for real, wait, what?

In 2013, the Seahawks provided Russell Wilson with more QB support than any other team. They won the Superbowl. The 49ers provided Colin Kaepernick with the second highest QB support; they were narrowly defeated by the Seahawks in the NFC championship game. What does this have to do with the Bills? The Bills have the highest QB support in the league after 2 weeks of the 2014 season.

They rank 1^st in defensive and special teams support. They’ve allowed 15 points a game while adding a special teams TD and helping the offense with great field position.  They also rank 6^th in offensive support, averaging over 140 yards of non-QB rushing, and they have yet to have a non-QB turnover.

HOWEVER, there is still reason to believe this MIGHT not translate into a playoff berth. Last year, only two teams finished in the top ten in QB Support and still failed to put up a winning record. The 6-10 Bills were one of those teams (The 8-8 Jets were the other).  If you’re weak enough at the QB position in today’s NFL, it can be tough to win. Right now, however, E.J. Manuel is playing “good enough” as the Bills have won two straight despite his below average TAVA scores in both contests (-0.83 and -0.29). Given the upgrade at WR with Sammy Watkins, and a year of experience under his belt, Manuel should have the tools to play well enough to get this team to the playoffs. They don’t need him to be great, just average… or at least not too far below average. At this point, the Bills don't need to ask how if their young signal caller is good enough to bring them into the playoffs. Rather, their situation is a sort of an inverse of that question; is he bad enough to stop them?

Brady Struggling?

Brady currently ranks 34^th out 35 QBs with a TAVA score of -1.19 so far in 2014. Is that a typo?!  Everyone saw the protection problems, his struggles on deep throws, and the turnovers in week 1, but they glided to victory in Week 2. What gives? Even in victory, Brady didn’t do all THAT much to help his team win, and it was not enough to undo the hit to his TAVA score from week 1. Perhaps Brady didn’t do more because he didn’t have to, but he wasn’t all that efficient in leading his team to points.  The patriots scored two TDs in week 2 where Brady’s involvement was simply not required. One was a blocked kick return, and another was an INT returned to the 1 followed by two runs to punch it in. After that, Brady had 10 possessions, and he led the offense to 1 TD and 3 FGs. That seems ok, but it’s less impressive when you consider that the Patriots rushed for 150 yards and they also had drives which started at the NE 45, the 50 yard line, the MIN 45, and the MIN 31.

I FULLY EXPECT BRADY TO POST HIGHER SCORES in the week to come, but so far, he struggled against Miami, and played more of a game manager role in Minnesota. With that small sample, his “Total Adjusted Value Added” for 2014 currently stands at a pretty low number.

Eli is not the problem in NY

Much is being made of Eli Manning and his penchant for throwing interceptions. He led the league in interceptions last year, and after two weeks, SURPRISE, he’s doing it again. The problem with the Eli Manning narrative, is that it’s focused on the wrong things. It forgets that the Giants are allowing 30 points a game, putting him in a constant position of playing catch-up. It ignores the fact that the Giants are averaging 67 rushing yards on 2.7 yards a carry, meaning the defenses Eli faces don’t have to honor the run. This narrative also fails to take into account that, of the 20 drives Eli Manning has had, 18 of them started behind his own 30 yard line and all of them started behind his own 40.

So… no defense, no run game, and a long field… oh, and QB Support doesn’t count drops, but Victor Cruz, you know, Eli’s number 1 pass-catcher, yea that guy. He leads the league in drops. Just FYI.

TAKE LAST WEEK AS AN EXAMPLE. Eli threw interceptions on two of his ten drives, but the second interception was with 9 seconds left, no timeouts, and down by 11. It had absolutely no impact on the game whatsoever. A 50 yard completion would have done the exact same thing. The other interception? The other one killed a potential long FG attempt (48 yards) on a drive where Eli Manning had been 4-4 for 43 yards, but faced a 3^rd and 8, mostly because the running game was completely ineffective on 3 rushes for 5 yards. The Cardinals got the ball on their own 29. An interception is never a great play, but it’s important to note that a sack and a punt into the end zone yields a very similar outcome. It’s also important to note that Eli’s passing is what got them down the field in the first place.

Nevertheless, the Giants started this game down 10-0, and Eli managed to rally them back and take the lead (14-10) with TD drives of 90 and 74 yards. The Cardinals responded with a FG on their next drive, and then everything unraveled for New York. The Giants got torched for a Punt Return TD, fumbled the ensuing kickoff, and then, when Manning finally got the ball back and drove the team down to the red zone, Rashad Jennings fumbled the ball away, and thus ended any realistic chance of victory. The Giants lost week 2 despite an above average performance at the QB position (TAVA: 0.84). It’s ok to blame Eli Manning for the Giants’ woes if it makes you feel better. Just know that you’re wrong.