YOUNG GUN SUPPORT: PART I

Why I’m not buying Russell Wilson… yet.

We’re now four weeks into the 2012 NFL season, and I have three weeks of QB Support statistics up and calculated. The media is already abuzz with analysts that want to take these few weeks of play and make grand sweeping statements. Not to be outdone, here at QB Support we’re also ready to take a small sample size and make (qualified) grand sweeping statements.

The 2012 season has given us perhaps one of the richest crops of rookie QBs. A NFL record FIVE (Count ‘em FIVE) rookie QBs were starting for their teams at the start of this season. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were the big stars everyone expected to start. Slightly more surprising (but not by much) was that the Browns picked Brandon Wheeden as their signal caller from day 1 and that the Dolphins went with Ryan Tannehill. The only real surprise was that the Seahawks, who spent a pretty penny to land free agent and former Aaron Rodgers understudy Matt Flynn, decided to go with Russell Wilson. 

In addition to outplaying and outworking his competition, Wilson was also reported to have that X factor, that special “something.” His teammates believed in him, his coaches believed him, and he brought that contagious “winning attitude.” Should we have been surprised then at the end of week 3 that while Luck, RGIII, and Tannehill were 1-2 and Wheeden was struggling at 0-3, it was Russell Wilson who was the first rookie QB to notch 2 wins and bring his team to a winning record?

We shouldn't be surprised. But not because of anything that has to do with Wilson. Rather, it’s the support he’s getting from his teammates. Unlike Luck and RGIII, Wilson has not, in any game, been tasked with taking the team on his back to pull out a victory. Instead, he’s been the beneficiary of playing a team that’s been making it comparatively easy for Wilson to win games.  

Consider the records of all non-rookie QBs across various support levels.

QB SUPPORT	Less than 1.49	1.5 to 1.99	2 to 2.99	3 to 3.99	4 to 4.99	5+
WINS	1	3	7	15	8	9
LOSSES	21	5	7	3	2	0

A support level above 5 almost nearly guarantees victory, and a QB should reasonably be expected to win with a level of 3 or above while levels below 2 create an uphill battle for the QB. Here is how Russell Wilson has performed over the first three weeks.

RESULT	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
LOSS	5.075	Cardinals	20-16
WIN	6.01	Cowboys	27-7
WIN	3.485	Packers	14-12

Not only did Wilson enjoy high levels of support during both of his wins, he also enjoyed high support during week 1 and still failed to deliver a win for his team. What exactly does high support look like for Russell Wilson when we step outside the numbers? Well, let’s take a quick walk through his first three games.

In week 1, the Seahawks defense allowed 20 points to the Cardinals that Wilson’s offense would have had to overcome to win.  However, Wilson also made things difficult for his defense by giving the Cardinals the ball inside his own twenty on a fumble. Additionally, Wilson had great field position at various points of the game, starting drives at (1) the Arizona 42 yard line, (2) the Arizona 24 yard line, (3) the Arizona 34 yard line, and (4) the Arizona 16 yard line. It was the field position on these four drives that led to ALL of the Seahawks points. The Seahawks did not score a single point on any drive that started on their own half of the field.  In considering how much Russell Wilson contributed to that week 1 game, consider the following three numbers: 98, 2, and 4. Before the final drive of the game (which resulted in no points for the Seahawks), Russell Wilson had 98 passing yards, he had turned the ball over 2 times, and his team was down only four points. SUPPORT LEVEL: 5.075; RESULT: LOSS (NOTE: This is the only game through 3 weeks of this season where a QB with a support level of 5 or better lost).

Going to Wilson’s week 2 game against the Cowboys, he was victorious, but it’s hard to imagine any NFL QB wouldn’t have snagged a win given how the rest of the Seahawks performed. Not only did the defense only allow only 7 points, the Seahawks special teams added a touchdown after blocking a punt. Wilson’s offense had to put up exactly 0 points to keep the game tied. Add a couple drives with decent field position and 154 rushing yards from players not named Russell Wilson and it’s not surprising that the Seahawks won this game easily.  SUPPORT LEVEL: 6.010; RESULT: WIN

Wilson and the Seahawks won another game in week 3, but Wilson once again was playing the role of game manager, amassing only 130 yards through the air and a not-so-notable 18 yards on the ground. And once again, he was well supported by his team (and the replacement officials, but that’s another conversation for another day). The Seahawks defense was stingy, limiting the Packers to a mere 12 points. The ground game was solid (though not spectacular) with the RBs churning out 109 yards. Wilson did lead his team victory on the final drive, but he also started with the ball on Green Bay’s 46 yard line. It’s also important to note that the strong defensive effort is the only reason Wilson had a chance for those late game heroics. Most QBs who pass for 94 yards on 16 attempts in the first 59:14 don’t generally find themselves down by only five points in the final 46 seconds. After one 22 yard completion and one desperation toss into the endzone, Wilson and the Seahawks were 2-1 and tied for the best record in their division. Surely, Wilson should get credit for the clutch play, but maybe his teammates should garner more for such a strong performance against the Packers. SUPPORT LEVEL: 3.485; RESULT: WIN.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Wilson’s winning right now, but I don’t think that’s because he’s bringing something to the table that other rookie QBs are not. Instead, these are wins that are a product of a team that’s overpowering teams with good defense, opportunistic special teams, and a solid running attack. Of course, Wilson is a rookie and we’re looking at a VERY small sample size. I’m not selling on Wilson (or any rookie this early in his career). I’m just not buying any talk that he “just knows how to win,” at least not yet.

Stay tuned for

Young Gun Support Part II: The Struggles of Tannenhill and Wheeden

Young Gun Support Part III: Luck and RGIII: Still Head of the Class