YOUNG GUN SUPPORT: PART II

The Struggles of Tannehill and Wheeden

My last post discussed why I’m not yet ready to buy into Russell Wilson as a “winning QB.” Today, I want to take a look at how effective Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Wheeden have been at leading their teams to winning across different support levels. The good news: as it was with Wilson, I’m only examining the first three weeks of their career. This is a small sample size, and there’s plenty of time to improve. The bad news: it’s not too pretty for either Wheeden or Tannehill.

Wheeden is winless and Tannehill 1-2 so it might seem as I’m just stating the obvious when I say that the two QBs are off to a rough start. Additionally, pretty much any individual passing statistic could tell you the same thing about these two young QBs. Sometimes, QB support is confirming what we already know, but it does allow us to dig deeper in getting a sense of a QB’s “value added” for individual games.  

Once again, I’ll repost the win-loss records of non-rookie QBs across different support levels:

QB SUPPORT	Less than 1.49	1.5 to 1.99	2 to 2.99	3 to 3.99	4 to 4.99	5+
WINS	1	3	7	15	8	9
LOSSES	21	5	7	3	2	0

Keeping those records in mind, let’s move on to how Ryan Tannehill fared during weeks 1 through 3:

TANNEHILL
RESULT	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
LOSS	3.3	TEXANS	10 – 30
WIN	5.985	RAIDERS	35 – 13
LOSS	3.875	JETS	20 – 23

Tannehill has not had a support level below 3 in his first three weeks, and yet he finds himself at only 1-2. The Texans trounced the Dolphins, but that was in part due to Tannehill’s lackluster performance. It would have been near impossible to lose against the Raiders in week 2, and Tannehill did not do much to help his team’s effort against the Jets (though Dan Carpenter didn’t do much to help either).

Week 1 is perhaps Tannehill’s most interesting game in the context of QB Support. Sure, the Texans put up 30 points on the Dolphins and that can be hard for any QB to overcome. That fact itself is a big part why it was Tannehill’s lowest support game, but why wasn’t the calculated support lower? Well, because the Dolphins special teams spotted Tannehill a touchdown, meaning his offense had only to catch up to 23 points. Not only that, a number of those points were created because Tannehill threw three interceptions that placed the Texans at the Miami 7 yard line, the Miami 27 yard line, and the Houston 46 yard line. It is worth noting that ALL of Houston’s TDs were from those three drives. Considering the circumstances that Tannehill created for his team, he was actually pretty well supported, especially factoring in the special teams TD. It was not just the Texans offense, but Tannehill’s poor performance that sunk the Dolphins in week 1.

In week 2, Tannehill and the Dolphins earned their first win, but it wasn’t done on the back of their QB. The Dolphins generated 249 yards on the ground, held the Raiders to 13 total points AND gave Tannehill the ball at his own 40 yard line or better 3 times. Tannehill played serviceable, but it’s tough to believe that any drop in performance at the QB position would have affected this game too much.

Week 3 was perhaps Tannehill’s worst game in terms of helping his team get the win. His defense held the Jets to 16 points total (13 in regulation), but Tannehill gave away 7 more with an interception returned for a TD. He got plenty of help from his ground game (185 yards), and he was given 13 total possessions. His support rating was lowered because of Dan Carpenter’s missed kicks, but it wasn’t affected that significantly because those misses were from 47 and 48 yards out (QB Support is adjusted for missed field goals, but it also takes into account the distance from which they were missed). Although Carpenter should have been expected to make at least one of those, they are not exactly chip shots either. More than that, better play at the QB position from Tannehill could have (A) helped Carpenter get closer or (B) put the Dolphins in a position where they didn’t need those last minute field goals. At the end of the day, the Dolphins played a tough, closely fought game against the Jets, and they needed more out of their rookie QB than 16/36, 196 yards, and a pick six. In a game this close, even a marginally better effort could have avoided overtime and reliance on a kicker from 45+ yards out.

Wheeden
RESULT	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
LOSS	4.31	EAGLES	16 – 17
LOSS	1.2	BENGALS	27 – 34
LOSS	1.245	BILLS	14 – 24

Brandon Wheeded hasn’t had the consistently high support levels that Tannehill has enjoyed, and that’s a definitely a part of why he’s 0-3. Still, during the one game he did have a high support level, he did pretty much everything in his power to help his team lose.

Week 1 for Wheeden was an unmitigated disaster, and he was a big part of the reason his team lost. The Browns defense kept the Eagles to 17 points, and they added a defensive TD of their own. Granted, the 74 yards rushing that Wheeden’s teammates provided isn’t much, but he only had to help the offense generate 10 points. Additionally, he had a number of chances on the Browns 15 drives, 3 of which started between the 40 yard lines, and one which started on Philadelphia’s  22. Unfortunately, even that field position couldn’t help Wheeden find the endzone, and the Browns offense settled for field goals, generating only nine points to add to the defense’s seven. The Browns needed only a below average effort from their rookie QB, but he couldn’t even provide that, and they fell to the Eagles by one point.

Weeks 2 and 3 were actually better for Wheeden. His team struggled to give him any good shot at winning, and yet the games were not blowouts. The rushing game worked well in week 2, providing 130 yards, but the defense allowed 34 points and, along with the special teams unit, failed to offer Wheeden much help in terms of field position. It took a significantly improved performance on Wheeden’s part to keep the game as close as it was. Week 3 was a similar story. Although the browns allowed less points, their rushing game stalled out against the Bills. Faced with coming up with 24 points without anything special in terms of field position, Wheeden wasn’t up to task. In fairness to him, it was a lot to ask of a rookie QB, especially considering that the browns only mustered 33 yards on the ground.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Both Wheeden and Tannehill have had their struggles. Tannehill notched a win in week 2, but he has struggled to put Ws on the board for his team even when his defense, special teams, and ground game are working well. Too often, he’s undermining those efforts with mistakes that put the defense in compromising positions or even directly put points on the board for the other team. Wheeden has definitely received less help from his team on weekly basis. Nevertheless, if he wants to be starting for the Browns long-term, they’re going to need him to win “the easy ones.” It doesn’t get much easier for a QB than Wheeden’s week 1 game, but his complete inability to move the offense cost his team the game. It’s early, both in the season and in these young QBs careers, but they’re going to have to play better going forward if they want to keep their jobs.