Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Week 7 Highs and Lows


WEEK 7 TOP FOUR QB SUPPORT LEVELS:
TEAM
QB

OPPONENT
RESULT
QB SUPPORT
TEXANS
M. SCHAUB
ravens
WIN
6.745
49ers
a. Smith
Seahawks
WIN
6.560
vikings
c. ponder
cardinals
WIN
6.460
bears
J. cutler
lions
WIN
5.855
Week 7 was not the first time that Matt Schaub was able to ride his team to victory, and it probably won’t be the last. The Ravens put up 13 points against the Texans defense, but after a safety and a TD from the Texans defense, Schaub only had to account for 4 points. Getting the ball between the 40 yard lines four times and having the benefit of 183 yards on the ground made this an easy one for Schaub. His solid play helped keep the Texans rolling, but it’s hard to imagine this one ever being close.

Another QB I expect to see in this section again is Alex Smith. Against the Seahawks, that stout 49ers defense allowed only 6 points, and the rushing attack helped Smith out with over 160 yards. Smith was also the beneficiary of some decent field position a number of times in the game. His 14/23 for 140 yards with an interception was not exactly stellar, but the 49ers didn’t need stellar. This is most definitely a win where the credit goes not to the QB, but the rest of the team.

Christian Ponder also found himself in that 5.5+ level of QB support where even poor QB play is enough for a win. And lucky for him too as he needed just about every bit of that support. The Vikings defense held the Cardinals to 14 points, added a defensive TD of their own, and the running game provided over 160 yards. All of this helped Ponder and the Vikings escape with a 7 point win despite the QB completing only 8 of his 17 passes for a measly 58 yards while also throwing an interception. 

Like Schaub and Smith, Jay Cutler continued to see high levels of support in week 7. His defense held the Lions to 7 points. In the same game, Cutler had 14 possessions to put up more points than 7, and with solid defense and special teams play, four of those possessions started around midfield, and one started inside the Lions 40 yard line. All of that, coupled with 137 yards on the ground from his teammates helped carry Cutler (150 yards passing and 34 yards rushing) to victory.

WEEK 7 HIGHEST SUPPORT LOSER
TEAM
QB

OPPONENT
RESULT
QB SUPPORT
Cardinals
J. Skelton
Vikings
LOSS
4.640
John Skelton’s defense allowed only 14 points against the Vikings. Considering that Skelton started drives with the ball around midfield twice, inside the Vikings 40 yard line once, and inside the Vikings 20 yard line once, one would think that 126 yards on the ground would be enough to put up more than 14 points. Skelton, however, made things harder on himself when his pick 6 increased the Vikings points to 21. Another fumble from Skelton also hurt the Cardinals chances. He did put 262 yards, but it wasn’t enough to consistently move his team downfield and put points on the board. His QB Support was adjusted down for Jay Feely’s missed FG from 47 yards out. Regardless, this was a game where the Cardinals could have won, but they needed better play from their QB.

WEEK 7 BOTTOM FOUR QB SUPPORT LEVELS:
TEAM
QB

OPPONENT
RESULT
QB SUPPORT
lions
m. stafford
bears
loss
1.49
rams
s. bradford
packers
LOSS
1.32
saints
d. brees
buccaneers
win
1.300
ravens
J. Flacco
texans
LOSS
0.970

It’s hard to imagine that a QB who’s defense allowed only 13 points would be listed among those were LEAST supported in a given week, but that’s exactly where we find Matthew Stafford. The defense may have played well, but the rushing game hurt Stafford significantly. First, the 76 yards on the ground did little to help Stafford consistently move the ball down the field. More than that, however, Stafford DID move the ball down the field on two occasions only to have a RB fumble the ball away inside the Bears 20 yard line, taking away even a chance for a field goal. With minimal help on the ground or in terms of field position, those fumbles made it even more difficult for Stafford to match any point total.

Sam Bradford played decent in a loss, keeping his team at least somewhat in the game against the packers. His defense allowed 30 points and, as both teams ground the clock to some extent, Bradford had only 9 possessions to match those 30 points. With mediocre field position and an only decent run game (108 yards), Bradford’s average performance was not enough to even keep it a one score game.

Joe Flacco, meanwhile, struggled just as much as his team did against the Texans. Even taking away Flacco’s pick six and the safety where he was sacked in the endzone, the Texans put 34 points. Asking Flacco to match that with only 48 rushing yards is asking a lot. Of course, Flacco might have been able to make the game closer without his mistakes or if he simply would have averaged more than four yards per pass attempt.

And the least supported QB to win this week was Drew Brees. Brees has suffered low support levels all year and, if the Saints are going to win, it seems it will have to be on the back on Brees. Week 7 was no different, and Brees delivered in a big way. Brees was tasked with overcoming 28 points. Now, his QB Support gets adjusted to some extent because an early Brees interception put the Bucs on the Saints 13 yard line. Still, Brees had only 82 yards rushing to help him out and did not begin a single drive past his own 40 yard line. The offense scored 35 points, and those points were scored primarily because of the efforts of Brees and his 377 passing yards. The Saints are not putting Brees in a good position to win games this year. In week 7 though, that didn’t matter. 

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