YOUNG GUN SUPPORT: PART III

RGIII and Andrew Luck: Still at the Head of their Class

My last two posts looked back at the first three weeks of the 2012 NFL season and discussed how QB support revealed that Tannenhill, Wilson, and Wheeden have struggled out of the gates. But how about RGIII and Andrew Luck? After their first four games, they were both 2-2. That's an average, but not great record. How much of that is typical rookie struggles to adjust to the NFL, and how much of that is simply the reality that RGIII and Andrew Luck are being asked to carry the team as they resurrect struggling franchises?

As a starting reference, here are the win-loss records across different levels of support for all QBs through the first four weeks of the 2012 season.

QB SUPPORT	Less than 1.5	1.5 to 1.99	2 to 2.99	3 to 3.99	4 to 4.99	5+
WINS	2	4	11	17	12	17
LOSSES	27	8	13	5	5	1

Again, there seems to be big changes in winning percentage between QB who receive support levels below two (6 - 35), support levels between two and three (11 - 13), and support levels over three (46 - 11). Also, winning percentage increases as we go up in support at each subgroup EXCEPT from the 3 to 3.99 to the 4 to 4.99 categories. I suspect this is statistical noise, and would also point out that of the five losses in the 4 to 4.99 category, three have involved Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, or Brandon Wheeden. I think as the season progresses, we’ll see a greater winning percentage in the 4s than in the 3s.

Games in the 2 to 2.99 support levels are generally a toss-up that could go either way. A team will need strong play out of their QB to win, but it seems to be a 50/50 shot. With support less than two, it’s an uphill battle for any QB, and with support above 3, most teams can expect a win, as long as their QB can provide a relatively adequate game. Of course, as we get past five, it’s all but a guaranteed victory for a team that gets any reasonable output from their QB.  

With that in mind, let’s take a look at how RGIII and Luck stack up against the rest of their cohort. Consider the following statistics for games played through Week 4**:

**I included Luck’s Week 5 game because he had a bye in week 4. This way, the table captures the first four games played by each QB **

QB	Games with Support > 3	Avg Support	Record after four games
Wilson	4	4.71	2-2
Tannehill	3	4.00	1-3
Wheeden	1	2.39	0-4
RGIII	0	2.15	2-2
Luck	0	1.84	2-2

Wilson had support levels above 3 EVERY week (and above 4 in all but one), and yet the Seahawks were only at .500 going into week 5. Tannenhill had 3 weeks of support above 3, and yet the Dolphins won only one of those games (where support was closer to 6). Wheeden only had one game above 3 (it was above four in fact), but he failed to win that one too. In short, these three QBs are not always winning the games one would expect an average QB to win, and they are certainly not winning any others. They are rookies though.

They are rookies though. Just as I think that is a semi-reasonable excuse thus far for Wilson/Tannehill/Wheeden, I also think it suggests that we might have something very special on our hands when it comes to RGIII and Luck. Let’s take a look at their game by game support levels.

RGIII	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
WIN	2.065	Saints	40-32
LOSS	1.51	Rams	28-31
LOSS	2.72	Bengals	31-38
WIN	2.305	Buccanrs	24-22

LUCK	QB SUPPORT	OPPONENT	FINAL SCORE
LOSS	0.81	BEARS	21-41
WIN	2.445	VIKINGS	23-20
LOSS	1.11	JAGUARS	17-22
WIN	2.975	PACKERS	30-27

Both QBs have won two games with support levels between 2 and 2.99 (though Luck’s last one was very close to 3). What’s been more impressive than that, however, is just how close they have come to winning games at even lower levels of support. Luck’s loss in week 1 is the only time either QB has lost by more than one score. Let’s take a closer look at RGIII’s loss to the Rams and Luck’s loss to the Jaguars.

Against the Rams, RGIII’s teammates rushed for 94 yards and allowed the Rams to put up 31 points. RGIII only had to outperform 24 points, however, because the Redskins defense added a TD of their own off a fumble recovery.  Still, without a single possession starting past his own 40 and only 10 possessions total, RGIII had some work to do if he wanted to keep the Redskins in the game. He went 20/29 passing, threw for 206 yards (and 1 TD), and he added another 82 yards on the ground (including 2 TDs) while turning the ball over just once on his way to adding 21 more points for the Redskins.

Luck had even less help when he played the Jaguars. Luck’s offense had to overcome 22 points. Like RGIII against the Rams, Luck also did not start a single possession past his own 40 yard line, and his teammates contributed only 74 yards on the ground on 25 carries. Making things harder, Adam Vinatieri missed a 36 yard field goal. Luck also turned the ball over once, but it was Luck’s contributions on offense that not only kept the Colts within five, but put them on the 26 yard line with just seconds left for one last Hail Mary attempt. It didn’t work out, and the Colts lost. Still, Luck’s 313 passing yards and the 50 more he added with his legs were pretty special contributions from a rookie QB who was asked to put up more than 22 points with very little help in regards to the ground game, field position, or the kicking game.  

The wins that Luck and RGIII have led their teams to show that the Colts and Redskins can win right now while asking their QBs to do more than just “manage the game.” The close losses where support was at 1.51 or even 1.11 show that these QBs are just a step away from being able to carry their teams to victory the same way some of the more celebrated veterans do. At this point, they are still worlds away from the other rookie QBs when it comes to helping their teams win. For now, Luck and RGIII are still firmly at the head of their class.