Week 11 QB Support Levels

Week 11
TEAM	QB	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
CARDINALS	Skelton/Lindley	LOSS	7.155
REDSKINS	R. Griffin III	WIN	6.275
JETS	M. Sanchez	WIN	6.175
BENGALS	A. Dalton	WIN	6.140
FALCONS	M. Ryan	WIN	5.865
49ERS	C. Kaepernick	WIN	5.665
PATRIOTS	T. Brady	WIN	5.425
SAINTS	D. Brees	WIN	5.295
BRONCOS	P. Manning	WIN	5.195
BILLS	R. Fitzpatrick	WIN	4.575
BUCCANEERS	J. Freeman	WIN	4.250
RAVENS	J. Flacco	WIN	4.220
BROWNS	B. Wheeden	LOSS	4.035
PACKERS	A. Rodgers	WIN	3.675
CHARGERS	P. Rivers	LOSS	3.645
RAMS	S. Bradford	LOSS	3.355
STEELERS	Leftwhich	LOSS	3.045
LIONS	M. Stafford	LOSS	2.970
COWBOYS	T. Romo	WIN	2.695
TEXANS	M. Schaub	WIN	2.240
DOLPHINS	R. Tannehill	LOSS	2.145
PANTHERS	C. Newton	LOSS	2.015
EAGLES	N. Foles	LOSS	1.800
BEARS	J. Campbell	LOSS	1.580
RAIDERS	C. Palmer	LOSS	1.505
CHIEFS	M. Cassell	LOSS	1.190
JAGUARS	C. Henne	LOSS	0.485
COLTS	A. Luck	LOSS	0.125

Week 11 Highs and Lows

WEEK 11 TOP FOUR QB SUPPORT LEVELS:

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
CARDinals	Skelton/lindley	falcons	LOSS	7.155
redskins	R. Griffin III	eagles	WIN	6.275
Jets	m. sanchez	rams	win	6.175
bengals	a. dalton	falcons	win	5.865

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, WE HAVE THE WORST LOSS OF THE SEASON! No QB has lost in 2012 with a QB Support level higher than 5.5. In week 11, John Skelton and Ryan Lindley lost not just with a QB Support level above that, but with a week high 7.155 level of support. The Cardinals QBs had to overcome 16 points that the Cardinals defense allowed. Lindley would give away 7 more on a fumble the Falcons returned for a TD. The QBs also benefited from 137 yards on the ground. The real support, however, was the field position they enjoyed as a result of a defense that generated six turnovers. The Cardinals offense started drives on the Atlanta 9, 18, 35, 16, and 32 yard line. And yet, the Cardinals QBs were so ineffective at moving the ball (a combined 11/27 for 70 yards) that even with a strong ground game they translated the field position into only 19 points. The only TD drive for the Cardinals was a two play drive from the Falcons 9 yard line. On that drive, Skelton simply handed the ball off for two plays. These QBs did less to help their team win than any other QB so far in the 2012 season.

Coming off a few tough losses and a bye, it’s best if you can make things as easy possible for your rookie QB. In week 11, it looked like Robert Griffin III didn’t need much QB support at times, but it definitely helped. RGIII never had to play from behind as his first drive started at Philadelphia’s nine yard line. The defense would hold the Eagles to six points, and give RGIII great field position on other occasions as well. The rookie certainly played a strong game, but he wasn’t exactly put in a compromising situation.

The struggles of Mark Sanchez have been well-documented in this blog, but even he can win games with QB Support levels of 6 or greater. The Jets defense allowed only 13 points, Sanchez’s teammates added 125 offensive yards on their own, and Sanchez started 4 drives deep into Rams territory, including one on the Rams 13 yard line.

Andrew Dalton also benefited from high QB Support levels in week 11. The Bengals held the Chiefs to a mere 6 points, and Dalton’s teammates rushed for 176 yards. It’s that simple. Other factors aside, 176 rushing yards make it pretty easy to put up more than 6 points.

  

WEEK 11 BOTTOM FOUR QB SUPPORT LEVELS:

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
raiders	c. palmer	saints	loss	1.505
chiefs	CASSELL/Quinn	bengals	LOSS	1.190
jaguars	c. henne	texans	loss	0.485
colts	a. luck	patriots	LOSS	0.125

Carson Palmer just can’t seem to get himself off this list. The 38-17 loss to the Saints actually marked the highest support he received since the Raiders beat the Chiefs in week 8. Palmer threw a pick six, so his QB Support levels adjusted for 31 points against the defense, but that’s still not exactly excellent. With 117 rushing yards and nothing special in terms of field position, this was a somewhat winnable game for Palmer, but definitely an uphill battle.

It’s been made clear that Matt Cassell hasn’t been particularly good at winning games this year, even when he receives high QB Support levels. Thus, it shouldn’t surprise us that a low QB Support level for the Chiefs turned into a blowout loss. Neither Cassell or Quinn played exceptional, but they weren’t that horrible either (Combined 17/30 and 188 yards passing). The truth is that the Bengals were all over the Chiefs, and it would have taken something special from the QBs to keep this came competitive.

The Jaguars got something special from their QB in week 11 as Chad Henne threw for four TDs, 354 yards and didn’t turn the ball over once. It wasn’t enough as the defense allowed 43 points and the rushing game offered Henne only 80 yards. It was an extreme effort by the Jaguars’ backup, but the team ended up falling short in the end anyway.

It was not a great effort from Andrew Luck this week. With three interceptions (two returned for TDs) and a lost fumble, it was probably the rookie’s worst outing so far. With that said, it was more than the rookie’s struggles that sunk the Colts. Even taking away his two pick sixes, the Patriots would still have put up 45 points. That’s part of the reason Luck was throwing all over the field (50 attempts, 334 yards). His mistake filled performance helped solidify the game as a blowout, but the Patriots were clearly the better team on Sunday, regardless of who was playing QB for the Colts.

WEEK 11 LOWEST SUPPORT WINNER

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
texans	M. schaub	jaguars	win	2.240

As the Jaguars Chad Henne was lighting up the Texans defense, it took a strong effort from Matt Schaub to secure win. The Texans rushing game continued to thrive, putting up 136 yards on the ground. When the defense allows 37 points though, and Schaub has to throw 55 times for 527 yards to pull out a win in overtime, it’s hard to say that he wasn’t a big part of this victory.

Week 10 Highs and Lows

WEEK 10 TOP FOUR QB SUPPORT LEVELS:

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
TITANS	J. Locker	Dolphins	WIN	8.160
TeXANS	M. SCHAUB	BEARS	WIN	6.735
SEAHAWKS	R. WIlson	Jets	WIN	6.545
COLTS	A. luck	jaguars	WIN	5.905

In weeks 1 through 9, no one did a worse job of supporting their QBs than the Saints and the Titans, but Jake Locker’s return in week 10 also coincided with a rejuvenated effort from the entire Tennessee team. They held the Dolphins to 3 points, added a defensive TD, rushed for 144 yards, and gave Locker the ball deep into Dolphins territory 3 times. Locker’s 9/21 and 122 yards passing stat line was hardly impressive, but even that was much more than the Titans needed as they demolished the Dolphins 37-3.

Matt Schaub has had some of the highest QB Support levels this year, and that trend continued in week 10. Schaub turned the ball over twice, giving the Bears the ball around midfield on one occasion and deeper into Texans territory another time. Still, the Texans held the Bears offense to 6 points. Schaub was also aided by having 14 possessions, good field position, and 129 rushing yards from his teammates.

Russell Wilson is another QB who has been lucky to have strong support most of this season and also in week 10. The Seahawks defense did not allow a single point against the Jets. The only points the Jets scored came directly off Wilson’s own mistake (a fumble the Jets D returned for a TD). Wilson was also helped by his teammates’ 141 rushing yards and a 23 yard TD thrown by Golden Tate.

Before week 9, Andrew Luck had not played in a single game with a support level above 3.5. If the Colts were going to win, it was likely going to be on the back of their rookie QB. That was not the case in week 10 though. The Colts dominated the Jaguars and Luck simply had to manage the game and cruise to victory. The Colts D scored a TD themselves while holding the Jaguars to only 10 points. Meanwhile, Luck started one drive inside the 20 yard line, had 127 rushing yards to help him, and cruised to his easiest victory as a pro.  

WEEK 10 HIGHEST SUPPORT LOSER

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
CHIEFS	M. Cassell	STEELERS	LOSS	4.750

Matt Cassell was the worst QB by our value added metric in the mid-season review. Well, he didn’t look much better in week 10. The Chiefs held the Steelers to only 16 points (after overtime I might add), and Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis combined for 130 yards on the ground. Cassell also had some great field position, including a drive that started at Pittsburgh’s 10 yard line. If that wasn’t enough, the Steelers only got their game clinching points when Cassell threw an interception in overtime, putting the Steelers at the Chiefs 5 yard line. The Chiefs keep losing, and it does seem that the below average play at QB is a big part of that.

WEEK 10 BOTTOM FOUR QB SUPPORT LEVELS:

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
bills	R. Fitzpatrick	patriots	loss	0.700
falcons	m. ryan	Saints	LOSS	0.660
raiders	c. palmer	ravens	loss	0.280
lions	m. stafford	Vikings	LOSS	0.205

Ryan Fitzpatrick had to overcome 37 points against the Patriots, and he only had ten possession to do it. Although his RBs helped with 150 yards on the ground, it wasn’t that helpful when Fred Jackson fumbled the ball right at the goal line after Fitzpatrick and the Bills had driven the length of the field with hopes of drawing closer. Fitzpatrick turned the ball over himself, one time giving the Patriots the ball inside the Bills 20 yard line, and  his QB Support levels were adjusted accordingly, but it still didn’t make them very high.

At the close of week 9, no one had a higher “value added” metric than Matt Ryan. Ryan also added a lot for the Falcons in Week 10 (52 attempts, 411 yards, 3 TDs, and one INT). It wasn’t enough for a win though, as the Falcons allowed 31 points and generated only 34 yards on the ground to help Ryan overcome those points. A win here for Ryan and the Falcons would  have been second least supported win of the year.

Another week, another loss for the Raiders, and another appearance for Carson Palmer on the least supported QB list. The Raiders allowed 55 points and rushed for only 72 yards. There were other issues, but do we really need to go on? Palmer stood no chance in this game.

It’s tough to overcome 34 points. It’s tougher still to do it when your team can only generate 34 rushing yards. When your field position for the game is nothing special as well, it gets even harder. Matt Stafford and the Lions pass attack was fairly effective. Stafford put 329 yards, completed 66 percent of his passes, and threw for 3 TDs and only one pick. And yet, his team lost by ten points.

WEEK 10 LOWEST SUPPORT WINNER

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
Patriots	T. Brady	Bills	win	2.670

Tom Brady had very high support for most of his 2012 wins in the first half of the 2012 season. Things were  a little bit different in week 10. While the Bills were putting up 31 points, Brady led the Patriots offense to keep New England one step ahead. A QB Support level of 2.67 isn’t extremely low, but it does require good QB play, and Brady’s 38 passes without a single turnover and 237 passing yards were just barely good enough. This game came down to the wire and without Brady’s mistake free football, the Patriots probably could have counted this one in their loss column.