Mid-Season Review Part I: The Best

I. GET THESE GUYS A BACKPACK!

TEAM	QB	AVG. SUPP.	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	VALUE ADDED
FALCONS	M. Ryan	3.15	4.88	8	3.12
COLTS	A. Luck	2.10	2.55	5	2.45
PACKERS	A. Rodgers	3.00	4.45	6	1.55
LIONS	M. Stafford	2.14	2.57	4	1.43
RAVENS	J. Flacco	3.71	4.76	6	1.24

The QBs above are carrying their teams to victory on numerous occasions. The Atlanta Falcons are good, but without Matt Ryan they are not 8-0 good. As Matt Ryan is the hot pick for mid-season MVP, his being the most effective QB by QB Support’s "Value Added" metric shouldn’t come as any surprise. Seeing Aaron Rodgers (last year’s MVP) here also shouldn’t surprise anyone.

What may come as a surprise to some, however, is seeing Andrew Luck (a rookie?!), Joe Flacco (I thought it was all about Ray Rice and that Ravens defense), and Matt Stafford (isn’t that the guy killing my fantasy team?) ranked so high. The fact of the matter is all three of them have wins where they had low QB Support, games where their teams would not have won were it not for strong QB play.

HIGHLIGHT ON ANDREW LUCK AND JOE FLACCO:

Luck’s performances against the Packers (QB Support = 2.975), Dolphins (1.980), and the Vikings (QB Support = 1.945) have been a major part of the Colts success. Not only that, in the three Colts losses, Luck had to overcome an average of 30 points while his team provided him an average of 56 rushing yards. He’s had low support in losses and low to average support in his wins. Luck receives some of the lowest support in the league from his team. That’s probably common for a QB who was the first overall pick. A 5-3 record and being in the middle of the playoff hunt, however, is most certainly not.

It’s often thought that Flacco’s wins are generally on the back of a strong ground game and a stronger defense. That may be true, but that hasn't been the whole story so far this season. Flacco’s certainly had higher support than all the other QBs in this group, but he’s also had some low support games. In addition to building a strong record (4-1) in high support games, Flacco has also posted a winning record (2-1) in low support games. His performances against the Patriots (QB Support = 2.12) and the Cowboys (QB Support = 1.71) show that he doesn’t need a crushing defense or a dominating rushing attack to win games. He’s been a big part of the Ravens division leading 6-2 record.

II. THE DREW BREES CATEGORY

TEAM	QB	AVG. SUPP.	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	VALUE ADDED
SAINTS	D. Brees	1.57	2.18	3	0.82

Yes, Drew Brees has his own category. Drew Brees is the only QB in the league with a significantly above average “Value Added” number at this point in the season whose team has a losing record. Why? Drew Brees has received less support, on average, than any other QB so far. His defense can’t seem to stop anyone. Brees has had to overcome over 25 points on average, his teammates rush for an average of 81 yards a game, and the Saints defense and special teams have not exactly been providing him with great field position either. Nevertheless, the Saints have won two games with low support numbers, and almost won a game against the Packers where Brees had negative QB Support levels. In the two wins, Brees had a QBR of over 80 and threw for 370 yards or more. In the loss against the Packers, Brees threw for 446 yards on 54 attempts with no interceptions while the defense allowed 28 points and the ground game generated only 45 yards. The Saints have a losing record, but it’s not something you can blame on Drew Brees. He's played with a QB Support level above three only once, and he delivered a solid outing to help the saints cruise to a 15 point victory over the eagles.