Mid-Season Review Part III: The Mess

VI. NEEDS IMPROVEMENT

TEAM	QB	AVG. SUPP.	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	VALUE ADDED
COWBOYS	T. Romo	2.63	3.51	3	-0.51
DOLPHINS	R. Tannehill	3.51	4.54	4	-0.54
VIKINGS	C. Ponder	3.56	5.57	5	-0.57
SEAHAWKS	R. Wilson	3.88	5.63	5	-0.63
BUCCANEERS	J. Freeman	3.73	4.78	4	-0.78
PANTHERS	C. Newton	2.15	2.94	2	-0.94
BENGALS	A. Dalton	2.68	3.96	3	-0.96

HIGHLIGHT ON TONY ROMO

Romo’s value added number certainly isn’t terrible, but it’s not good either. Look at this list. Other than Freeman (in his 4^th Season), all of Romo’s colleagues in this category are rookies or were rookies last year. With an expected wins value at above 3, a veteran quarterback like Romo should be doing better. To be fair, he also has been hung out a couple of times by his receivers, one thing that QB Support does not take into account. Still, by the end of week 9, Romo hadn’t won a single game where the Cowboys offense had to supply more than 20 points. Romo also lost winnable games against Baltimore and the Giants. Yes, the Ravens put up 31 points, but Romo also benefited from some strong field position as well as 227 yards on the ground. The Giants also put up a healthy point total (29). Looking further, however, seven of those came on a Romo interception that was run back for a TD, and 10 more came after two other Romo interceptions set the Giants up deep in Cowboy territory. That leaves 12 points the Giants added without Romo giving them great field position or a defensive TD. Both of these games were very close (literally inches away from a win against the Giants), but the reality is that Romo will likely need to cut down on his mistakes if he wants to ensure that the Cowboys start winning these close games.

VII. I’M NOT MAD. I’M JUST DISAPPOINTED

TEAM	QB	AVG. SUPP.	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	VALUE ADDED
CHARGERS	P. Rivers	3.86	5.23	4	-1.23
REDSKINS	R. Griffin III	2.59	4.29	3	-1.29
BROWNS	B. Wheeden	2.83	4.01	2	-2.01
CHIEFS	M. Cassell	2.88	3.38	1	-2.38

HIGHLIGHT ON ROBERT GRIFFIN III AND MATT CASSELL

What happened to RGIII? The rookie was a media darling with praise being heaped from just about anywhere, and this blog was no exception. Then, here he is after nine games with the 3^rd worst value added number in the league. How did this happen? The answer is that the first half of RGIII’s rookie season can be further split up into two sections. In the first four games, he had an average QB Support of 2.4 translating into 1.80 expected wins, and he built a 2-2 record. Since that point, however, he received more support (avg. of 2.7 with 2.48 expected wins) and went 1-4. In his first four games, his QBR dropped below 70 only once, but in his next five games it was below 60 in all four losses. Just as I cautioned the small sample size when I reviewed the rookie QBs after their first four games, I remind my readers now that 8 games does not a career make. Teams may be game planning better for RGIII’s unique talents, and he may finally be taking his rookie lumps, but there’s a lot more football to be played in 2012 and likely even more football in the future of RGIII’s career.

With Matt Cassell, maybe we can be a little more certain. Cassell has been in the league for 8 seasons, and he’s been a starter for five. And yet, he is the WORST starting QB in the NFL according to our value added metric. He is the only QB this year so far who has lost a game with a QB Support level above 5. His record as a starter is, at the end of week 9, 1-6 (and he also lost his week 10 game, but hey, who’s counting). Not only that, the one game he did win was when he had a QB Support level above six. He went 26/44 for 248 yards, no TDs and one interception, and his team won in overtime. The only TD drive for the Chiefs was a one play drive where Jamaal Charles ran for a 91 yard score. Although Cassell and the offense had to overcome 22 points, Cassell had 15 drives  (a couple with some nice field position) and 271 rushing yards from his teammates. Oh, and his kicker went 6/6. If that’s what it takes for Cassell to win, the Chiefs may want to turn elsewhere at QB.