Week 9 Highs and Lows

Week 9 HIGH QB Support Levels

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
BEARS	J. Cutler	TITANS	WIN	9.270
STEELERS	B. Roethlisberger	GIANTS	WIN	6.635
CHARGERS	P. Rivers	CHIEFS	WIN	6.425
PACKERS	A. Rodgers	CARDINALS	WIN	6.095

Jay Cutler continues to enjoy gaudy support numbers, and seems to have a permanent home in the opening section of “Highs and Lows.” He’s the league’s most supported QB, which is a big part of the Bears 7-1 record. This week, the Bears defense allowed 20 points, but continued to score points of their own with a defensive TD. Additionally, the special teams added their own TD off a blocked punt, and Cutler was charged with overcoming only 6 points with the offense. With 148 rushing yards, 3 drives starting inside his opponent’s 20 yard line, another inside their 40, and three others right around midfield, overcoming 6 points was not quite a difficult task. Once again, it’s important to note that Cutler’s solid play was why the Bears didn’t just win, but won big. Still, notching a win in this game would have been easy for just about any NFL QB.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are on a three game winning streak after starting the season 2-3, and a big reason for that is the improved play of the whole team, which can be seen in Ben Roethlisberger’s increased QB Support numbers. In Week 9, the Steelers D held the Giants to 13 points, an impressive number considering that a Roethlisberger turnover gave the Giants the ball inside the Steelers 40 yard line at one point. Another Roethlisberger turnover was returned for a TD to put the Giants point total at 20, but that falls on Big Ben himself. Roethlisberger also received help from his running game to the tune of 159 yards while enjoying good field position. The Steelers started 4 drives around midfield, one inside the Giants 40 yard line, and another inside the Giants 20 yard line. This game was won the way Steelers teams used to win: with strong defense and a solid ground game.

Philip Rivers had the honor of being the highest supported QB to lose a game in week 8. In week 9, his team supported him even more. Not only did the Chargers’ defense hold Kansas City to 13 points, they added two defensive TDs, meaning that the defense alone outscored the Chiefs. Rivers cut down on his own mistakes and, with the help of over 130 rushing yard, guided the Chargers to an easy win.

Aaron Rodgers has had to won with low or average QB Support a few times this season, so it’s no surprise that he didn’t squander a QB Support level of over 6. The Packers’ defense allowed 17 points (good, but not great), and Mason Crosby missed a short field goal, so why such a high QB Support number. Rodgers’ support was high based on the great field position he enjoyed (3 drives deep in Cardinals territory, and two more around midfield) and a rare strong showing from the Green Bay ground game (over 140 yards). Given that 17 points is not exactly a huge number to overcome, the other factors suggested this game was one Rodgers should be expected to win.

Week 9 Highest Support Loser

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
BROWNS	B. Wheeden	RAVENS	LOSS	3.325

In fairness to Brandon Wheeden, a QB Support level of 3.325 is not THAT high. QBs with support levels between 2.500 and 3.499 win about 57 % of the time. So this loss isn’t so egregious. The problem is that everyone else with high QB Support levels won this week. The Ravens scored 25 points on the Browns defense, but the Ravens were also helped by two Wheeden turnovers which gave them strong field position. Wheeden and the Browns offense had some good field position themselves with four drives starting at or around midfield, and the Browns rushing attack helped with Wheeden with over 100 yards. It wasn’t amazing QB Support, but Wheeden can’t exactly blame his team for this one.

Week 9 LOW QB Support Levels

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
DOLPHINS	R. Tannehill	COLTS	LOSS	1.125
JAGUARS	B. Gabbert	LIONS	LOSS	0.115
TITANS	M. Hasselback	BEARS	LOSS	0.015
RAIDERS	C. Palmer	BUCCANEERS	LOSS	-0.565

Ryan Tannehill faced an uphill battle in the face-off between two first round QBs when his Dolphins faced Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. The Dolphins allowed 23 points, the ground game generated only 85 yards, and Tannehill had only 10 possessions without a single one starting passed his own 40 yard line. Tannehill had to guide the offense past a decent amount of points, and he was charged with doing most of it himself. The Dolphins rookie threw for 290 yards on 38 attempts without turning the ball over once, but that wasn’t enough for a win. The Dolphins asked a lot from Tannehill in week 9, and he delivered a lot, just not quite enough.

Blaine Gabbert continues to struggle in Jacksonville, but a large part of that seems to also be due to the fact that the entire Jaguars team continues to struggle. Gabbert had only 9 possession, and he never started a drive past his own 40 yard line. The rushing game didn’t help get down the field either, amassing a measly 61 yards, and Gabbert was supposed to lead his team to over 31 points how? It’s that simple. He had VERY little help this game, and it’s unsurprising he couldn’t pull out a win with a support level less than 0.500; no QB has accomplished such a feat in the 2012 season.

The Titans got crushed by the Chicago Bears, and it really mattered little who was playing QB. True, Matt Hasselback didn’t help matters by throwing a pick 6 or by getting sacked for a safety. Even excluding those two plays, however, the Titans allowed 42 points, and offensive players (other than Hasselback) turned the ball over 3 times. The 141 yards on the ground helped a little, but considering everything else the Titans were doing, it was not nearly enough for Hasselback and the Tiatans to have any realistic chance in this game.

Sooner or later, the Raiders will realize that Carson Palmer is not going to win a lot of games without much support. And in fairness to Palmer, almost no one is going to win games with negative QB Support levels. The Raiders allowed 42 points, and rushed for only 19 yards! Palmer also did not enjoy good field position so he was essentially asked to come up with 42 points on the passing game alone. He threw the ball 61 times for 414 yards, and 4 TDs. He also, perhaps unsurprisingly given the circumstances, threw 3 interceptions. Two of those picks gave the Bucs strong field position, and Palmers QB Support was adjusted accordingly. Still, this is not a loss for which you can blame Palmer. This was one of the five lowest QB Support levels all season (Palmer has two of the others as well).

Week 9 Lowest Support Winner

TEAM	QB	OPPONENT	RESULT	QB SUPPORT
COLTS	A. Luck	DOLPHINS	WIN	1.980

I think it’s safe to say that Andrew Luck appears to be the real deal at this point. His Colts are 5-3 at the end of week 9 (6-3 at the time this post is finally published), and he’s winning games not just because of high QB Support, but because of his own strong performance. QBs with QB Support level of 1.50 to 1.99 win only 25 % of their games. So what did this win look like? Luck got 92 yards of rushing from his teammates, and ten possessions to help him overcome 20 points. He didn’t have any strong field position worth mentioning either. Although Vinatieri helped out with a FGs from 43 and 47 yards out, he also missed one from 48. The Colts eked out a win nevertheless, and it was largely because of Luck’s Strong Play. The first overall pick in the 2012 draft threw 48 times, amassing 433 yards (breaking the record for most passing yards by a rookie) and two TDs without turning the ball over a single time. Luck received a lot of credit for this win, and that credit was very much deserved.