Week 5 Write-Up

HIGHEST TAVA IN A WIN: Peyton Manning, DEN

QB SUPP: -0.29

RESULT: Won by 3 points

TAVA: 6.19

A QB’s strong performance adds the most value when a strong performance is needed. Putting together back to back to back scoring drives in the 4^th quarter is always valuable, but it’s more valuable when the score is, say, 41-38, than it is when the score is 38-3. And it’s with this in mind that Manning’s performance on Sunday earned him the highest TAVA score in an individual game that we have seen all season. Manning did throw his first interception, but in 11 drives on Sunday, the Broncos had 2 turnovers (the INT and an Eric Decker fumble) and scored on EVERY SINGLE OTHER DRIVE. Excluding Decker’s fumble, Manning had 10 drives, and he led the Broncos to 51 points, usually with unremarkable field position. The Broncos were not used to finding themselves in close games so far this year. When the Cowboys lit up the scoreboard and took a 4^th Quarter lead, Manning was nevertheless unfazed and continued to churn out high quality play. Manning was more critical to his team earning a win than any other QB has been this entire year. He now leads all QBs for the year with a 2013 TAVA score of 3.41. No one else even comes close, with Drew Brees (1.97) in a distant second.

HIGHEST TAVA IN A LOSS: Tony Romo, DAL

QB SUPP: -2.06

Result: Lost by 3 points

TAVA: 3.04

It would be easy to try to pin this loss on Romo, saying that he choked by throwing an INT at the Cowboys 24 yard line with less than 2 minutes left in a tie game. It would be easy, but it would also be lazy and stupid. Romo played an incredible game on Sunday. While his defense was busy getting shredded by the machine-like Manning, Romo did what no other QB has done so far this season: he kept up, score for score. How does a QB keep up with the Broncos (who, when the game was tied at 48, had scored 5.1 points a drive) when his teammates rush for under 50 yards? Well, it helps to throw for 502 yards, complete nearly 70 % of your passes, and average over 20 yards a completion. Yes, his great outing was undermined by a late 4^th quarter pick (and his TAVA does reflect this), but Romo added more value than any QB not named Peyton Manning in week 5, even in a losing effort. Without an exceptional effort from the Cowboys QB, this game wouldn’t have just been a loss; it would have been a complete blowout.

HIGHEST QB SUPPORT: Colin Kaepernick, SF

QB SUPP: 7.72

Result: Won by 31 points

TAVA: 0.54

It doesn’t get much easier than this. The 49ers defense allowed 3 points; scored a TD themselves; and created turnovers that gave Kaepernick drives that started at the Texans 32 and 8 yard line. Oh, and Kaepernick’s teammates rushed for over 150 yards. Kaepernick added value himself by throwing a long TD to Vernon Davis and by not turning the ball over, but you can’t give him too much credit for this win. This was just a dominant team performance. 

LOWEST QB SUPPORT: Philip Rivers, SD

QB SUPP: 0.55

Result: Lost by 10 points

TAVA: 0.52

Rivers had to overcome 27 points, Yes, 7 of those points fall partly on Rivers for throwing an interception that gave the Raiders possession at the Chargers 44 yard line. The defense, however, also shares some blame for allowing the Raiders to go for 44 yards (in one play for that matter), allowing the Raiders to get the full 7 points opposed to settling for a field goal. In his attempt to come up with more than 27 points, Rivers had a dismal 32 rushing yards to help him. Rivers didn’t get a lot of help in the field position department either. He had no drives that began in Oakland territory, and 10 of his 11 drives started behind his own 30 yard line. Rivers made some costly mistakes, but it’s tough not to when your team needs almost 30 points, you have no run game, and you’re throwing the ball over 40 times, trying to come from behind the entire game.

LOWEST TAVA IN A WIN: Carson Palmer, ARZ

QB SUPP: 6.62

Result: 16 point win

TAVA: -0.33

I said at the beginning of the seasons that people shouldn’t count out the Cardinals, who had an absolute mess of a QB situation last year. I said that the team was so strong that what they needed from Palmer was merely below average QB Play. And that’s exactly what Palmer delivered in this 16 point win: decidedly below average QB play. The Cardinals defense allowed a net of 4 points (6 minus a safety they generated by sacking Cam Newton), a feat made more impressive when you consider that Palmer threw 3 INTs, including one that set up the Panthers deep in Cardinal territory. The defense also generated a number of turnovers themselves, giving Palmer 3 drives around mid-field and one inside the Panthers 10. Watch out for this Cardinal team if Palmer can continue to play “below average,” something he seems particularly adept at doing.

LOWEST TAVA IN A LOSS: C. Newton

QB SUPP: 3.99

Result: Lost by 16 points

TAVA: -3.83

An honorable mention goes to Matt Schaub here (-3.00 TAVA) for continuing his streak of pick-sixes for a fourth consecutive week, but Cam Newton’s dismal performance topped even Schaub’s continuing, perplexing, and comprehensive breakdown. Newton turned the ball over multiple times in the redzone. He was sacked in his own endzone. He fumbled the ball deep in his own end (leading to the Cardinals only TD). He wasted good field position. Yes, he had only 70 yards rushing from his teammates, but a net of 4 points considering the opportunities he had is just awful. The Panthers continue to struggle on offense, and Newton is a big (but admittedly not the only) reason for this.