Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Week 6 Write-Up

HIGHEST TAVA IN A WIN: Nick Foles, PHI
QB SUPP: 2.78
RESULT: Won by 11 points
TAVA: 2.63
Chip Kelly can tell you that there’s not a QB controversy in Philadelphia, but that doesn’t make it true. Yes, the Buccaneers are winless, but their defense is no slouch. Prior to this week, the Bucs had not allowed a single QB with a TAVA score above 0.60, and that includes games against Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Foles got some nice help from the rushing game, but his 296 passing yards on 31 throws (including a couple of very pretty TD passes) were a very large part of the Eagles putting up 31 points.

HIGHEST TAVA IN A LOSS: Mike Glennon, TB
QB SUPP: 0.93
Result: Lost by 11 points
TAVA: 0.13
There weren’t a whole lot of great performances by losing QBs in week 6, so this honor goes to Glennon. Glennon was shockingly ineffective in his first start a couple weeks ago. With a bye week to prepare and the subpar Eagles defense, he was able to do much better. Let’s be clear: he wasn’t pro-bowl caliber, but he was at least a little above average and much better than a couple weeks ago. Now, Glennon’s score is still worse than most QBs who faced the Eagles. Nevertheless, his 26/43, 273 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT at least showed some signs of potential and gave at least a little hope for the future.

HIGHEST QB SUPPORT: A. Smith, KC
QB SUPP: 5.63
Result: Won by 17 points
TAVA: 0.37
No QB has received more support so far this year than Alex Smith. The Chiefs have scored a defensive or special teams TD in all but one of their first six games. That trend continued this past Sunday. The defense held the Raiders to only 7 points and added their own 7 on a Terelle Pryor interception returned for a TD, allowing a net of zero points. Add the fact that Smith had two drives inside the Oakland 30 (courtesy of two other Pryor interceptions) and this wasn’t a tough game for any QB to turn into a W.

LOWEST QB SUPPORT: Matt Cassell
QB SUPP: -0.08
Result: Lost by 25 points
TAVA: -0.49
Cassell seemed to shake off a terrible 2012 year in his first start with the Vikings, putting in a strong performance leading his team to a win. His struggles returned to some extent against the Panthers, but you can’t lay all the blame on him. It would have taken something extraordinary from Cassell to even keep this game close. The defense allowed 35 points, the ground game generated a measly 68 yards, and Cassell had only 9 chances to drive the ball down the field, with all 9 of those chances starting behind his own 30 yard line.


LOWEST TAVA IN A WIN: Aaron Rodgers, GB
QB SUPP: 4.66
Result: Won by 2 points
TAVA: -0.38
This is the perfect example of a misleading stat-line. Rodgers threw a 64 yard TD pass on his way to 17/32 for 300+ yards. Sounds pretty good, right? Here’s the problem. After that single TD, Rodgers took the field an additional 13 times, got 120 yards (at almost 6 yards a pop) from Eddie Lacy, three points from a field goal where the offense didn’t even have to take the field, and two drives that started very deep into Ravens territory. Still, those 13 drives generated only 9 points. Why? On third down in Ravens territory, Rodgers was 1/5 for 15 yards and an interception, failing to convert even a single first down. His inability to turn scoring opportunities into TDs (or even points) is the reason this game stayed so close and why his TAVA score lands in the red.

LOWEST TAVA IN A LOSS: T. Pryor
QB SUPP: 3.85
Result: Lost by 17 points
TAVA: -3.71

There’s no team that’s tougher for QBs to play right now than KC (based off of opponent’s TAVA scores), but that excuse can only take Pryor so far. Pryor struggled to consistently move the ball down the field, leading the offense to only 7 points. The rest of the offense didn’t give Pryor much help, but a decent amount of the blame falls on Pryor for throwing a pick six and two other interceptions deep on his own side of the field. Pryor’s interceptions led to 17 points for the Chiefs… their exact margin of victory. 

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