Week 7 Write Up

HEAD OF THE CLASS

MATT RYAN

QB Supp: 1.51

RESULT: 31-23 Win over Buccaneers

TAVA: 4.34

Ryan was the highest rated QB by TAVA last year, but it was easy to dismiss his results as a product of the quality players around him. Who has better WRs than Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez? Well, Gonzalez is a year older, Jones is on injured reserve, and White was, for the first time in his career, sidelined with an injury. Newcomer Steven Jackson was also hurt, leaving Ryan with a less than heralded cast, headlined by Harry Douglas. All Ryan proceeded to do was complete almost 80 % of his passes for over 10 yards an attempt despite the Falcons complete inability to run the ball (30 yards total). On 8 chances with the ball in his hands, Ryan led his team to 24 points (the defense added a TD as well) and scored the fourth highest TAVA score in a single game this year. 

Honorable Mentions: Andy Dalton (TAVA: 4.28) missed some throws, but got great results in a tough game. Could it be possible that he develops into a SB caliber QB for a strong Bengals team. RGIII (TAVA: 4.02) reminded people that rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers (TAVA: 2.62), Colin Kaepernick (TAVA: 1.89), and Cam Newton  (TAVA: 1.87) all put in solid efforts to help their teams coast to victory.

NOT AT FAULT

PEYTON MANNING

QB Supp: 0.49

RESULT: 39-33 Loss to the Colts

TAVA: 0.95

I’ve read a lot about this game was classic Manning, choking under the pressure of a big game. Has it really come to this people? Manning was chased around all night, his two big mistakes (a fumble for a safety and an INT deep in his own end) brought his TAVA down significantly, but they both the result of being hit. Moving on from that, Manning engineered four TD drives, threw for 386 yards, and could have led another TD drive if Ronnie Hillman hadn’t fumbled inside the 5 yard line. This is what we call choking? This is the problem with Manning. He so often plays other-wordly good that when he plays merely, very good, he call him a choke-artist. A team that provides 0.49 in QB support should expect to win about 7 % of the time.  

Also not to blame: Matt Stafford (TAVA: 1.34) played a strong game with Megatron back at his disposal, but the lack of support (QB Supp: 0.15) made it hard to pull out a win. Jake Locker (TAVA: 0.43) and the Rams QBs (TAVA: -0.31) could have played better, but the Titans and Rams did a poor job of helping their QBs, putting their signal callers in tough positions throughout each game.

NOT AS GOOD AS ADVERTISED

ANDREW LUCK

QB Supp: 3.35

RESULT: 39-33 Win over the Broncos
TAVA: 1.36

Luck has 4 TDs in win over Broncos! The future is NOW! A new ERA! Yea yea yea… ok, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Luck played well. But this game wasn’t quite the performance people are making it out to be. Yes, he had some great plays, like a scramble to just barely convert on a 3^rd and 11. He also missed some throws though, playing a key role in the Colts converting only 5 of 17 third downs. Yes, he led the Colts offense to four TDs and 3 FGs with a less than stellar run game, but that was in large part because the defense kept getting Manning and the Broncos off the field, giving Luck an incredible 17 drives (many with a short field). That’s almost double the chances he had last week against the Chargers. This was a great team effort and Luck delivered a solid performance, but not a great one, four TDs or not.

GENO SMITH

QB Supp: 5.20

RESULT: 30-27 (OT) Win over the Patriots

TAVA: -0.89

Geno Smith still struggles with poor decision making and consistency. He IS a rookie, and no one should be writing him off yet, but we also shouldn’t put too much weight on the fact that “he wins.” Because, in most games, Geno isn’t the reason the Jets are winning right now. Smith started this game strong, converting 6 of 6 third down attempts on 6 passes for 84 yards. That strong play helped the Jets drive down the field 3 times, but Smith and the offense created only only 3 net points on those 3 drives. The Jets scored 1 TD, settled for a FG, and Smith threw a pick six in between. It’s great that he showed some promise, but it’s less than great that he undid much of that work with a costly turnover. After that, Smith’ s passing on third down wasn’t nearly as effective, completing 3 of 7 passes for 10 yards and converting only one first down in seven chances.

Meanwhile, the defense would hold the Patriots offense to a net of 13 points, and Smith’s teammates rushed for 177 yards. A better QB performance from Smith, and this game wouldn’t have needed overtime and a (correct) interpretation of a new rule for the Jets to notch another win. 

Also not THAT great:Russell Wilson (TAVA: 0.29) had a decent night passing and running against the Cardinals, but he can thank his defense for (1) giving him some great field position and (2) holding it down after his fumbles put them in compromising situations. Eli Manning (TAVA: 0.30) and the Giants notched their first win of the season, but it was mostly due to a strong defensive effort.

IT REALLY WAS THAT BAD

RYAN TANNEHILL

QB SUPPORT: 4.88

RESULT: 23-21 loss to the Bills

TAVA: -3.41

Freeman might have played worse, but Tannehill added less value to his team because his struggles were clearly the difference in a game the Dolphins really should have won. The Dolphins held the Bills offense to 16 points, and 3 of those (the game-winning FG) were a direct result of a Tannehill fumble. Seven more, of course, were added at the start when Tannehill threw a TD pass to the Bills defense on the opening drive. Tannehill also threw away points when, from the Buffalo 17 yard line, he was intercepted again. The Dolphins should have won this game, but Tannehill’s three turnovers sunk an otherwise strong team effort.

JOSH FREEMAN

QB SUPPORT: 2.81

RESULT: 23-7 loss to the Giants

TAVA: -2.17

Freeman may have been arguably more ineffective than Tannehill, but he had a lot less help in a game where the Vikings were never really competitive anyway. They rushed for 30 yards, missed a FG, allowed 23 points on defense, and were left with no choice but to ask Freeman (who hasn’t been there that long) to throw 50+ times. What’s amazing isn’t how bad Freeman played (but let’s be real, it WAS that bad), but that there weren’t more turnovers. Freeman, however, did nothing to lift himself from the bottom of the 2013 TAVA rankings. He still sits at 33rd out of the 33 ranked QBs. 

ALSO SHAMEFUL: The Foles/Barkley combination (TAVA: -2.62) was disastrous for Philadelphia, Tom Brady (TAVA: -2.00) continued to struggle continued despite Gronk’s return, and Carson Palmer (TAVA -1.16) couldn’t help his team even get close to the Seahawks despite some good opportunities created by his defense.