Medical professionals used to think fat was the absolute
key to heart disease. If you ate low-fat, you’d be fine. As it turns out, those
sugar-filled low fat options aren’t very healthy, and medical professionals
have now told us that at least certain kinds of fats aren’t so bad after all. There
are even “good fats.” I’m not a doctor, and I don’t play one on TV (or anywhere
else for that matter). But I can tell you this: while there’s no “good
interceptions,” there are some interceptions are not as bad as we previously
thought.
Comparing quarterbacks by how many interceptions they’ve
thrown, or even their int % (the percent of their passing attempts that result
in interceptions) is downright silly. And yet, interceptions can kill a passer
rating or have a drastic impact on even more modern metrics, such as ANY/A
(Average Net Yards per Attempt). It’s time to stop the madness. Some
interceptions in some situations are awful. Some are bad, and some are
irrelevant. We need to start to look at them more carefully instead of just
tallying up totals.
It’s not that interceptions are desirable; obviously,
they’re not. It’s just that incompletions (or a couple of them), sacks,
completions that do not result in first downs, and, in rare instances,
completions that don’t result in touchdowns can be as bad or almost as bad of a
result as an interception. I’ll try to
go through six of these situations, offer examples, and explain why some interception
aren’t always as bad as we think they are.
THE HAIL MARY INT
THE
SITUATION: This one is the most obvious. There’s mere seconds left
in the half or the game. The ball is at the 50 yard line. The Quarterback drops
back, the defense rushes 2, maybe 3, and drops everyone else into deep
coverage. The Quarterback heaves the ball to the endzone, knowing he has little
chance of a completion, but also knowing he has no other option. It’s a jump
ball, and it’s picked off. SO WHAT.
WHY IT’S NOT
THAT BAD: In this instance, an incompletion, a sack, or even a 49
yard pass give the same result as an interception.
WEEK 11
EXAMPLE: Although it wasn’t quite a Hail Mary into the endzone,
Jay Cutler, on his own 48, threw an interception with 7 seconds left in the
first half. The Bears had no timeouts and were trying to throw a 20 yard pass
and get out of bounds. Only a catch and getting out of bounds would have been
better than the INT.
THE FOURTH DOWN INT
THE SITUATION: It could be
anywhere on the field, but here’s your situation. It is 4th and 3.
For whatever reason, the team opts to go for it.
WHY IT’S NOT
THAT BAD: Here, it can actually be BETTER to throw an interception than
it is to throw an incompletion, take a sack, or even complete a pass that
doesn’t make the first down.
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EXAMPLE: Eli Manning, facing fourth and goal from the San
Francisco 4 yard line threw an interception that was caught at the 2 yard line.
The play actually netted the Giants a 2 yard advantage over an incompletion. I
feel obligated to note that Manning did, however, throw four other
interceptions in that game.
THE “PUNT” INT
THE
SITUATION: Again, you can be anywhere on the field, though this
interception is least harmful when it happens on third down. The quarterback
goes deep, 40-50 yards down the field, and he hopes his teammate will make a
play on the ball. Instead, the defender comes up with an interception, but is
unable to return it upfield.
WHY IT’S NOT
THAT BAD: This is least harmful on third down because, in those
situations, it’s the exact same result as an incompletion or sack and a net
punt of 40-50 yards. Now, if you do it on second down, it’s more akin to two
completions and a punt (or three incompletions and a punt if done on first
down). Chances are though, most people think of an interception as much more
harmful than one or two incompletions. In this situation, it’s probably not.
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EXAMPLE: It’s not the best example because it was a first down
throw, but Tom Brady’s first interception in the Sunday Night Game was just as
good as a punt. Throwing from his own 49, Brady was picked off on a deep ball,
which gave the Colts the ball at their own 6. It was equivalent to punt with a
net of 45 yards.
THE FAILED COMEBACK ATTEMPT
THE
SITUATION: There is less than two minutes left, and the offense has
not timeouts, and they’re losing. You give up the ball. Game over. The
quarterback then throws an interception, and that’s it. That’s the ball
game.
WHY IT’S NOT
THAT BAD: Now we’re starting to get into the less obvious ones, but
stay with me here. You need points. An incomplete pass on 4th down
later on doesn’t help you, and you need your quarterback to take some risks.
Yes, an interception ends the game, but so does anything that doesn’t result in
points. And believe it or not, most of these drives do not end with points. If
your team loses, you shouldn’t be consoled by the fact that, hey, at least our
quarterback threw it away twice on that last drive instead of risking an
interception. Glad he could end the day without a turnover.
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EXAMPLE: I want to give two examples here.
First, is Russell Wilson. Down by four points in the
fourth quarter, Wilson and the Seahawks had three drives. Wilson converted one
first down on five third and fourth down passing attempts. He didn’t throw an
interception, but his team scored 0 points in their three 4th
quarter drives, failing to make it past their own 30 on the final drive. Congratulations
on not turning the ball over. It didn’t help you.
Second, is Teddy Bridgewater. Down 11 points, Bridgewater
led his team on a field goal drive to
pull his team within 8 points, and then down to the Bears 29 before throwing an
interception that sealed the game. In
those two drives, Bridgewater was 8/10, 102 yards, and, of course, one
interception. His teammates rushed for 2 yards on those two drives. The
interception wipes out the value he created on the last drive, but it doesn’t
make it a worse effort than Wilson’s.
THE LONG (PASSING) DRIVE INT
THE
SITUATION: The run game is getting stuffed. The defense knows the
offense is passing. And yet, the offense continues to march down the field.
Starting from deep in their own territory, they’re passing for first down after
first down. Next thing you know, they’re in or almost in scoring territory. And
then, bam, the ball is intercepted.
WHY IT’S NOT
THAT BAD: Ok, this is one is a little harder to understand, but
think of it this way. Your team has the ball at their own ten yard line. What do
you want from your quarterback? The drive could end with a Touchdown, Field
Goal, Punt, or a turnover (or, hypothetically, a safety). You’d think that a turnover
would be the worst end to the drive, but driving down the field and THEN
turning it over? It’s actually much better for the team than a three and out
would be. Now, if the running game is what drove them down the field, that’s a
little bit different (and the quarterback wasted precious run support). But if
it’s the quarterback who gets them out of their own territory before the INT,
then he’s added more value by doing that, then by going five yard pass,
incompletion, sack, punt.
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EXAMPLE: Andrew Luck’s teammates rushed for 4 yards last week. No,
not on a particular drive. In the entire game. On one drive, the Colts started
at their own 20 yard line. Trent Richardson would have one rush for -3 yards,
but Luck started the drive by going 3/3
for 44 yards, getting the Colts into Patriot territory before a pass was
deflected and picked off. Yes, it killed the drive, and this kind of interception is worse than some of the others listed above. Still, the Patriots starting
field position (their own 32) wasn’t much better than if Luck had strung
together a couple of incompletions earlier. It’s not a good play, but the total effort
is no worse than a failed drive and a punt.
THE (HOPELESS) FAILED COMEBACK ATTEMPT
THE
SITUATION: The team is losing by a lot (or at least more than one
score), and there’s not that much time left. The running game usually has been
completely abandoned at this point, and only the most optimistic fans have any
faith left. The quarterback throws, he throws again, and again. The quarterback
throws again and… INTERCEPTED!
WHY IT’S NOT
THAT BAD: Well, for one, they probably weren’t going to win anyway.
And two, if they WERE going to have a chance at victory everyone knew that they
were going to have put up points and put them up FAST. The quarterback had to
take risks here, and it’s a lot easier to avoid “costly” interceptions when
you’re up 24-3 than when you’re down multiple scores in the fourth quarter. A
stalled drive that takes time off the clock doesn’t help. Neither does an interception,
but it’s not really any worse in this situation.
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EXAMPLE: Mark Sanchez threw two interceptions, including one that
was run back for a touchdown, but he was also in the middle of an impossible
position. His first interception came with his team already down 33-6 mid-way
through the 3rd quarter. His second came with his team down 46-13 in the 4th
quarter. To some extent, he had no choice but to make risky throws. If you want
to be able to accurately evaluate Sanchez on the Eagles, try to see how he
plays when he’s not down by 30 points in the second half.
