Why "Interceptions Thrown" is a Misleading Statistic

Medical professionals used to think fat was the absolute key to heart disease. If you ate low-fat, you’d be fine. As it turns out, those sugar-filled low fat options aren’t very healthy, and medical professionals have now told us that at least certain kinds of fats aren’t so bad after all. There are even “good fats.” I’m not a doctor, and I don’t play one on TV (or anywhere else for that matter). But I can tell you this: while there’s no “good interceptions,” there are some interceptions are not as bad as we previously thought.

Comparing quarterbacks by how many interceptions they’ve thrown, or even their int % (the percent of their passing attempts that result in interceptions) is downright silly. And yet, interceptions can kill a passer rating or have a drastic impact on even more modern metrics, such as ANY/A (Average Net Yards per Attempt). It’s time to stop the madness. Some interceptions in some situations are awful. Some are bad, and some are irrelevant. We need to start to look at them more carefully instead of just tallying up totals.

It’s not that interceptions are desirable; obviously, they’re not. It’s just that incompletions (or a couple of them), sacks, completions that do not result in first downs, and, in rare instances, completions that don’t result in touchdowns can be as bad or almost as bad of a result as an interception.  I’ll try to go through six of these situations, offer examples, and explain why some interception aren’t always as bad as we think they are. 

THE HAIL MARY INT

THE SITUATION: This one is the most obvious. There’s mere seconds left in the half or the game. The ball is at the 50 yard line. The Quarterback drops back, the defense rushes 2, maybe 3, and drops everyone else into deep coverage. The Quarterback heaves the ball to the endzone, knowing he has little chance of a completion, but also knowing he has no other option. It’s a jump ball, and it’s picked off. SO WHAT.

WHY IT’S NOT THAT BAD: In this instance, an incompletion, a sack, or even a 49 yard pass give the same result as an interception.

WEEK 11 EXAMPLE: Although it wasn’t quite a Hail Mary into the endzone, Jay Cutler, on his own 48, threw an interception with 7 seconds left in the first half. The Bears had no timeouts and were trying to throw a 20 yard pass and get out of bounds. Only a catch and getting out of bounds would have been better than the INT.

THE FOURTH DOWN INT

THE SITUATION: It could be anywhere on the field, but here’s your situation. It is 4^th and 3. For whatever reason, the team opts to go for it.

WHY IT’S NOT THAT BAD: Here, it can actually be BETTER to throw an interception than it is to throw an incompletion, take a sack, or even complete a pass that doesn’t make the first down.

WEEK 11 EXAMPLE: Eli Manning, facing fourth and goal from the San Francisco 4 yard line threw an interception that was caught at the 2 yard line. The play actually netted the Giants a 2 yard advantage over an incompletion. I feel obligated to note that Manning did, however, throw four other interceptions in that game.

THE “PUNT” INT

THE SITUATION: Again, you can be anywhere on the field, though this interception is least harmful when it happens on third down. The quarterback goes deep, 40-50 yards down the field, and he hopes his teammate will make a play on the ball. Instead, the defender comes up with an interception, but is unable to return it upfield.

WHY IT’S NOT THAT BAD: This is least harmful on third down because, in those situations, it’s the exact same result as an incompletion or sack and a net punt of 40-50 yards. Now, if you do it on second down, it’s more akin to two completions and a punt (or three incompletions and a punt if done on first down). Chances are though, most people think of an interception as much more harmful than one or two incompletions. In this situation, it’s probably not.

WEEK 11 EXAMPLE: It’s not the best example because it was a first down throw, but Tom Brady’s first interception in the Sunday Night Game was just as good as a punt. Throwing from his own 49, Brady was picked off on a deep ball, which gave the Colts the ball at their own 6. It was equivalent to punt with a net of 45 yards.

THE FAILED COMEBACK ATTEMPT

THE SITUATION: There is less than two minutes left, and the offense has not timeouts, and they’re losing. You give up the ball. Game over. The quarterback then throws an interception, and that’s it. That’s the ball game. 

WHY IT’S NOT THAT BAD: Now we’re starting to get into the less obvious ones, but stay with me here. You need points. An incomplete pass on 4^th down later on doesn’t help you, and you need your quarterback to take some risks. Yes, an interception ends the game, but so does anything that doesn’t result in points. And believe it or not, most of these drives do not end with points. If your team loses, you shouldn’t be consoled by the fact that, hey, at least our quarterback threw it away twice on that last drive instead of risking an interception. Glad he could end the day without a turnover. 

WEEK 11 EXAMPLE: I want to give two examples here.

First, is Russell Wilson. Down by four points in the fourth quarter, Wilson and the Seahawks had three drives. Wilson converted one first down on five third and fourth down passing attempts. He didn’t throw an interception, but his team scored 0 points in their three 4^th quarter drives, failing to make it past their own 30 on the final drive. Congratulations on not turning the ball over. It didn’t help you.

Second, is Teddy Bridgewater. Down 11 points, Bridgewater led his team on a field goal drive  to pull his team within 8 points, and then down to the Bears 29 before throwing an interception that sealed the game.  In those two drives, Bridgewater was 8/10, 102 yards, and, of course, one interception. His teammates rushed for 2 yards on those two drives. The interception wipes out the value he created on the last drive, but it doesn’t make it a worse effort than Wilson’s.

THE LONG (PASSING) DRIVE INT

THE SITUATION: The run game is getting stuffed. The defense knows the offense is passing. And yet, the offense continues to march down the field. Starting from deep in their own territory, they’re passing for first down after first down. Next thing you know, they’re in or almost in scoring territory. And then, bam, the ball is intercepted.

           

WHY IT’S NOT THAT BAD: Ok, this is one is a little harder to understand, but think of it this way. Your team has the ball at their own ten yard line. What do you want from your quarterback? The drive could end with a Touchdown, Field Goal, Punt, or a turnover (or, hypothetically, a safety). You’d think that a turnover would be the worst end to the drive, but driving down the field and THEN turning it over? It’s actually much better for the team than a three and out would be. Now, if the running game is what drove them down the field, that’s a little bit different (and the quarterback wasted precious run support). But if it’s the quarterback who gets them out of their own territory before the INT, then he’s added more value by doing that, then by going five yard pass, incompletion, sack, punt.

WEEK 11 EXAMPLE: Andrew Luck’s teammates rushed for 4 yards last week. No, not on a particular drive. In the entire game. On one drive, the Colts started at their own 20 yard line. Trent Richardson would have one rush for -3 yards, but Luck started the drive by going  3/3 for 44 yards, getting the Colts into Patriot territory before a pass was deflected and picked off. Yes, it killed the drive, and this kind of interception is worse than some of the others listed above. Still, the Patriots starting field position (their own 32) wasn’t much better than if Luck had strung together a couple of incompletions earlier. It’s not a good play, but the total effort is no worse than a failed drive and a punt.

THE (HOPELESS) FAILED COMEBACK ATTEMPT

THE SITUATION: The team is losing by a lot (or at least more than one score), and there’s not that much time left. The running game usually has been completely abandoned at this point, and only the most optimistic fans have any faith left. The quarterback throws, he throws again, and again. The quarterback throws again and… INTERCEPTED!

WHY IT’S NOT THAT BAD: Well, for one, they probably weren’t going to win anyway. And two, if they WERE going to have a chance at victory everyone knew that they were going to have put up points and put them up FAST. The quarterback had to take risks here, and it’s a lot easier to avoid “costly” interceptions when you’re up 24-3 than when you’re down multiple scores in the fourth quarter. A stalled drive that takes time off the clock doesn’t help. Neither does an interception, but it’s not really any worse in this situation.

WEEK 11 EXAMPLE: Mark Sanchez threw two interceptions, including one that was run back for a touchdown, but he was also in the middle of an impossible position. His first interception came with his team already down 33-6 mid-way through the 3rd quarter. His second came with his team down 46-13 in the 4^th quarter. To some extent, he had no choice but to make risky throws. If you want to be able to accurately evaluate Sanchez on the Eagles, try to see how he plays when he’s not down by 30 points in the second half.