Wounded Birds

 The Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) sit atop the NFC East, and they look, or looked, like a lock to secure a spot in the playoffs. In addition to that record, however, they now also have a starting Quarterback who is out for the year. The Eagles lost Nick Foles to a broken collarbone and are now starting Mark Sanchez (yes, that Mark Sanchez). Yes, butt fumble, the Sanchize, har har har.

There are plenty of reasons to think the Sanchez-led Eagles are now doomed, but there are also plenty of reasons to think they might continue their success with Mark Sanchez as their starter. No, I’m not joking. Hey, stop laughing. This is a serious article here.

MUCH MORE THAN A QB

Last year, Chip Kelly and Nick Foles took the world (or at least the NFC East) by storm. Foles finished third in TAVA (1.417), behind only Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers as he threw 27 TD passes and only 2 interceptions. It was a historic season for the young QB, and the Eagles went 8-2 (including their playoff loss) in games where Nick Foles started and finished the game.

This year, however, Foles (somewhat predictably) came back to reality. His turnovers increased; his touchdowns, completion %, and yards/att all decreased; he missed throws; he held onto the ball too long. The point of this is not to pick on Nick Foles. His TAVA score (0.597) is still decidedly above average, and it stands at11^th amongst qualifying Quarterbacks, just above Alex Smith. A lot of teams would love to have a healthy Nick Foles. The point I’m trying to make is that he wasn’t the key to his team in the way that, say, Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning are. He wasn’t the sole reason that the Eagles were 5-2 and on their way to 6-2 when he was injured.

And as good as Mark Sanchez has looked in relief, he wasn’t really the key to victory against the Panthers either. In that game, the Eagles scored once on special teams, once on defense, and generated big plays to give the offense the ball inside Panther territory on four separate occasions. This team is much more than their passing offense.

The Eagles lead the league in QB Support with an average score of 4.29 per game, and it’s not exactly close either. The difference between the Eagles and the team with the 2^nd best QB Support (The New England Patriots) is greater than the difference between the 2^nd best and the 9^th best. The Eagles have four games where, ignoring QB play, their win expectancy was above 80 percent (that last game against the Panthers was one of them). Even mediocre QB play will result in a win in those games.

A SCORING DEFENSE IS THE BEST OFFENSE

How are the Eagles doing it? They don’t lead the league in any of the traditional defensive categories. They’re 12^th in points allowed and 21st in both yards allowed and opponents 3^rd down percentage. And it’s not like their rushing attack (13^th in yards/gm and 19^th in yards/att) is carrying the load.

So what is it that’s creating all this support? The Answer: BIG plays on defense and special teams. The Eagles are 1^st in the league in “net points,” points allowed by the defense and special teams minus the points scored by those units from returns on kicks and turnovers. The defense might be allowing an average-ish 22 points a game, but the defense and special teams are also scoring, on average, 1 touchdown per game. No, that’s not a typo. They are AVERAGING one non-offensive touchdown a game.

And it doesn’t stop with the touchdowns. Excellent special teams play and key turnovers are giving the Eagles offense great field position. The Eagles rank third in field position support, behind only the Bills and the Dolphins.

There is a legitimate question as to whether the Eagles can keep this up. Turnovers, defensive touchdowns, return touchdowns… all these things tend to be slightly more variable than, for example, just stopping the other team from scoring the “traditional way” by forcing three and outs and a lot of punts. But if the Eagles keep creating short fields for the offense, that alone might be enough to tip the scales in their favor down the stretch, even without their starting QB.

THE CHIP KELLY EFFECT

The Eagles support their QBs. Ok, got it. So it would take an especially bad quarterback to sink them if they keep up this effort? Right, that’s good for Eagles fans, right? There’s only one problem. In 2012, the last time Mark Sanchez was a starter, Mark Sanchez was in fact the kind of especially bad quarterback that could sink an otherwise good team. He ranked 35^th out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks in TAVA. He regularly lost games with a win expectancy of greater than 50 %, including two games where his team’s QB Support created win expectancies of 68 %, and 89 %!

But there is at least one factor that no statistic will ever be able to take into account: coaching. When Mark Sanchez was with the Jets, he played for Rex Ryan (a great defensive mind) and a series of offensive coordinators of questionable effectiveness (to put it generously). Sanchez now has the opportunity to play for Chip Kelly, a head coach who was hired for his revolutionary offensive mind. We shouldn’t expect Sanchez to turn into an all-pro, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to raise his game to replacement level or even slightly above league average. And if he can perform at that level? Well, that might be all the Eagles need to win the division.