Going through the Progressions (Week 9 Review)

SPECIAL TEAMS THE DIFFERENCE IN MANNING-BRADY XVI

As we tend to do, we have over-reacted about the latest Brady-Manning game, and its implications on the legacy of the two greatest QBs of a generation. And, as it usually goes, the TEAM that played better was the team that won.

Neither QB had much of anything in terms of run support for most of the game, but special teams gave the Patriots a significant edge in this game.

·       A Denver penalty on an already short punt allowed New England to get 3 points on what otherwise would have been a 3 and out and a New England punt.

·         Edelman’s punt return TD return gave the Patriots 7 more points.

·         A missed Denver field goal that was a very makeable 41 yards is another 3 point difference between the two teams. (Gostkowski, meanwhile, was 3/3 kicking for the Patriots, hitting field goals of 29, 45, and 49 yards).   

Think about it. IN A GAME WHERE "BRADY THROTTLED MANNING"  BY 22 POINTS, BIG PLAYS AND MISTAKES ON SPECIAL TEAMS ALONE ACCOUNTED FOR A VERY CLEAR 16 POINT DIFFERENCE. Then, you have to consider that the Broncos ran out the clock on their last possession since the game was out of reach. If you were only looking at how effectively the QBs led their teams down the field to score, it’s a lot closer than a 22 point difference.

Tom Brady played a cleaner and more efficient game than Manning in Foxboro last weekend (and TAVA picked this up, scoring Tom Brady at 1.18 opposed to Manning’s -0.05), but the big difference in the final score had much more to do with a stronger team effort, most notably on special teams, than individual QB performances.

TEDDY BRIDGEWATER SHOWING PROMISE

TEDDY BRIDGEWATER HAS SEEN HIS SHARE OF STRUGGLES IN HIS FIRST FIVE STARTS. After opening with a strong win against the Falcons, he lost three straight, leading the offense to 10, 3, and 16 points before getting bailed out by his defense in overtime against the lowly Buccaneers. He posted Points Added scores of -17, -14, -14, and -3 in those four games.

Early in last week’s game against Washington, it looked as Bridgewater’s struggles were continuing. He missed a wide-open Cordarelle Patterson for what would have been an easy TD on blown coverage; he struggled when facing pressure, and the Vikings had zero points after five drives. They punted on their first four possessions before turning it over on downs on their fifth.

Then, the defense made a play, intercepting a pass to give the offense good field position, and Bridgewater responded. He went 3/4 for 46 yards on a four play TD drive. The Vikings opened the second half with another TD, and Bridgewater would later account for 50 yards of a 76 yard TD drive and 64 yards of a 73 yard TD drive. The latter occurred with his team down five points late in the fourth quarter. Bridgewater was making all the key plays when his team needed him to down the stretch. The Vikings scored 0 points on their first five possessions, but they scored 29 on the next five.  It doesn’t guarantee future results, but it’s a very promising game for a rookie who might just be finding his sea legs.

BORTLES STRUGGLES CONTINUE

If Bridgewater is showing promise after a few rough games, that might be the only cause for optimism in Jacksonville. The Jaguars spent their third overall pick on Blake Bortles, but HE'S LOOKING MORE LIKE BLAINE GABBERT THAN PEYTON MANNING. 

Bortles started out his career with almost no support. First, he came in at half time when the Jaguars were already losing 30-0 against the Indianapolis Colts. In his next three starts, he had lousy field position, a terrible ground game, and he was usually playing from behind. So we (and to some extent, his TAVA scores), forgave him.

But as the support increased, Bortles didn’t play any better. If anything, he might have played worse. Against the Dolphins, Bortles literally threw the game away. His teammates rushed for over 120 yards. The defense also put on a strong effort and held Miami’s offense to 13 points. Bortles, unfortunately, threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns, and the Jaguars lost by…. wait for it… two touchdowns.

Bortles wasn’t quite that bad against the Bengals last week, but he still had his fair share of struggles, including a critical 4^th quarter interception. At the moment, Bortles has the lowest TAVA score of all qualifying NFL QBs (at least 3 complete games). Bortles will get the benefit of the doubt this year, but next year? The NFL isn’t a league with a lot of patience. You can ask second year QBs E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith how long teams will put up with inept play at the QB position.